Mon, Nov 28, 2022·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Detroit Red Wings 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 25 | 214 | 06 | 425 |
| DET | 110 | 015 | 119 | 244 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:45DETMoritz SeiderAssists: Dylan Larkin, Dominik Kubalik · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–1
- P1 8:24TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Michael Bunting, Mac Hollowell · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P1 9:15TORWilliam NylanderPPAssists: John Tavares, Rasmus Sandin · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–1
- P2 0:52TORMitch MarnerGWGAssists: Mark Giordano, Calle Jarnkrok · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–1
- P2 8:37TORRasmus SandinAssists: Auston Matthews, Alexander Kerfoot · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–1
- P3 12:41DETAdam ErneAssists: Moritz Seider, Ben Chiarot · Tip-in, 0.04 xG4–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 5:51TORRasmus Sandin: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:37DETDavid Perron: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 14:45TORDenis Malgin: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 15:37DETOskar Sundqvist: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:31TORMichael Bunting: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Copp
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKerfoot – Engvall – Holmberg7:25
xG 0.56–0.20 (73%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Tavares – Jarnkrok – Marner11:52
xG 0.47–0.30 (61%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Nylander – Bunting – Matthews11:43
xG 0.36–0.79 (31%)attempts 9–19goals 2–1
- Malgin – Aston-Reese – Kampf11:18
xG 0.17–0.75 (18%)attempts 3–20goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Giordano – Holl16:39
xG 0.36–0.41 (47%)attempts 7–13goals 0–1
- Mete – Hollowell12:07
xG 0.27–0.76 (26%)attempts 6–21goals 0–1
- Liljegren – Sandin14:04
xG 0.21–0.80 (21%)attempts 6–19goals 1–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestPerron – Kubalik – Larkin8:25
xG 0.91–0.28 (77%)attempts 14–7goals 1–1
- Sundqvist – Erne – Rasmussen8:18
xG 0.32–0.00 (100%)attempts 13–2goals 1–0
- Perron – Copp – Bertuzzi3:55
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Suter – Veleno – Berggren9:46
xG 0.66–0.73 (48%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMaatta – Hronek13:58
xG 0.61–0.04 (93%)attempts 16–4goals 0–0
- Oesterle – Seider2:01
xG 0.23–0.02 (91%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Oesterle – Walman16:07
xG 0.66–0.95 (41%)attempts 19–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).