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Ice Lab

Thu, Dec 1, 2022·KeyBank Center, Buffalo

Colorado Avalanche 6, Buffalo Sabres 4

Away

Colorado Avalanche

6

Final

Home

Buffalo Sabres

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 65% of the time.

BUF winsCOL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
COL19413112634
BUF2811119428

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 8:48COLJ.T. CompherPPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Devon Toews · Snap, 0.20 xG1–0
  2. P1 10:19BUFJJ PeterkaAssists: Jack Quinn, Dylan Cozens · Slap, 0.09 xG1–1
  3. P1 19:49BUFTage ThompsonPPAssists: Jeff Skinner, Dylan Cozens · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–2
  4. P2 9:00COLNathan MacKinnonPPAssists: Cale Makar, Mikko Rantanen · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–2
  5. P2 9:49COLArtturi LehkonenPPAssists: J.T. Compher, Nathan MacKinnon · Backhand, 0.14 xG3–2
  6. P2 11:53COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Cale Makar, Devon Toews · Snap, 0.12 xG4–2
  7. P2 14:05BUFDylan CozensPPAssists: Tage Thompson, Jeff Skinner · Slap, 0.19 xG4–3
  8. P2 17:16COLJ.T. CompherGWGAssists: Logan O'Connor, Andrew Cogliano · Snap, 0.23 xG5–3
  9. P3 0:07BUFAlex TuchAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Tage Thompson · Backhand, 0.09 xG5–4
  10. P3 19:25COLMikko RantanenENAssists: J.T. Compher, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.68 xG6–4
Penalties (15)
  1. P1 0:54COLJosh Manson: Cross checking2 min
  2. P1 7:27BUFTage Thompson: Hooking2 min · PPG
  3. P1 11:10COLNathan MacKinnon: Holding2 min
  4. P1 19:04COLLogan O'Connor: Holding2 min · PPG
  5. P2 2:07BUFJJ Peterka: Holding2 min
  6. P2 3:52BUFKyle Okposo: Roughing2 min
  7. P2 3:52COLArtturi Lehkonen: Roughing2 min
  8. P2 7:45BUFHenri Jokiharju: Hooking2 min · PPG
  9. P2 7:50BUFOwen Power: High sticking2 min · PPG
  10. P2 12:20COLMikko Rantanen: Hooking2 min · PPG
  11. P2 12:20COLDevon Toews: Cross checking2 min
  12. P3 1:13BUFOwen Power: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  13. P3 6:02COLJayson Megna: Holding2 min
  14. P3 13:30COLAnton Blidh: Tripping2 min
  15. P3 16:56BUFPeyton Krebs: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

COL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0BUF
49% to win51% to win
← COL attackBUF attack →
  1. P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against MacKinnon
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

COLBUF
34Shots on goal28
4.5Expected goals3.5
49Shot attempts61
38Faceoffs won30
6Power plays7
16Penalty minutes14
10Hits13
19Blocked shots6
5Giveaways6
5Takeaways4

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Colorado Avalanche

Forward lines

  1. bestLehkonen – MacKinnon – Rantanen9:28

    xG 0.68–0.27 (71%)attempts 8–8goals 1–1

  2. Cogliano – Compher – O'Connor6:41

    xG 0.53–0.28 (65%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0

  3. MacKinnon – Rantanen – Newhook2:46

    xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0

  4. Megna – Blidh – Hunt3:05

    xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–1

Defence pairs

  1. bestManson – Girard5:32

    xG 0.30–0.14 (68%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0

  2. Girard – Makar2:22

    xG 0.15–0.10 (60%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0

  3. Johnson – MacDonald5:56

    xG 0.19–0.21 (47%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1

Buffalo Sabres

Forward lines

  1. bestSkinner – Tuch – Thompson12:10

    xG 0.67–0.36 (65%)attempts 14–5goals 1–0

  2. Olofsson – Mittelstadt – Krebs6:25

    xG 0.09–0.01 (93%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0

  3. Okposo – Girgensons – Jost7:06

    xG 0.09–0.13 (40%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0

  4. Cozens – Quinn – Peterka7:16

    xG 0.23–0.74 (24%)attempts 3–9goals 1–2

Defence pairs

  1. bestJokiharju – Power9:41

    xG 0.34–0.27 (55%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0

  2. Dahlin – Power3:47

    xG 0.16–0.10 (61%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0

  3. Samuelsson – Dahlin13:06

    xG 0.54–0.50 (52%)attempts 16–6goals 1–1

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

BUF 3.5 xGCOL 4.5 xG
012345P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

BUFCOL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 95/100 · #102 of 1312 this seasonSwing 2.34 · 10 goals in reachComeback index 27% (winner's lowest chance)
COL 100%5050%50BUF 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +23 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 65% of the time.

BUF winsCOL wins

Simulated goal difference (BUF − COL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).