Thu, Dec 1, 2022·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Philadelphia Flyers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 17 | 217 | 13 | 427 |
| PHI | 09 | 02 | 111 | 122 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:02TBLNick PaulPPAssists: Corey Perry, Alex Killorn · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 7:55TBLNick PaulGWGAssists: Ian Cole, Steven Stamkos · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–0
- P2 19:56TBLRoss ColtonAssists: Corey Perry · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–0
- P3 9:19TBLIan ColeAssists: Erik Cernak, Andrei Vasilevskiy · Wrist, 0.00 xG4–0
- P3 11:23PHITravis KonecnyAssists: Travis Sanheim, Tony DeAngelo · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 14:52PHITravis Sanheim: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 9:58PHIRasmus Ristolainen: Holding2 min
- P2 13:21PHIZack MacEwen: Interference2 min
- P2 15:05TBLNick Paul: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:06TBLAlex Killorn: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:36TBLIan Cole: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cates won the faceoff against Point
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestMaroon – Bellemare – Colton7:30
xG 0.66–0.06 (92%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Killorn – Stamkos – Paul8:57
xG 0.42–0.04 (92%)attempts 9–5goals 2–0
- Stamkos – Kucherov – Paul2:42
xG 0.10–0.06 (62%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Point – Hagel10:18
xG 0.33–0.37 (47%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Sergachev10:47
xG 0.74–0.15 (84%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Cole – Perbix2:01
xG 0.49–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Cole – Cernak12:23
xG 0.55–0.14 (80%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestDeslauriers – Tippett – Frost3:17
xG 0.07–0.00 (99%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
- Willman – Laczynski – MacEwen3:05
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Konecny – Tippett – Frost4:38
xG 0.28–0.28 (50%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Laughton – Konecny – Cates2:16
xG 0.10–0.11 (49%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- DeAngelo – Provorov2:49
xG 0.00–0.08 (1%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Ristolainen – Provorov13:15
xG 0.14–0.39 (27%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
- Ristolainen – Sanheim4:39
xG 0.04–0.37 (10%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).