Sun, Dec 4, 2022·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
San Jose Sharks 3, Buffalo Sabres 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 213 | 06 | 110 | 329 |
| BUF | 115 | 313 | 210 | 638 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:19BUFTage ThompsonPPAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Dylan Cozens · Snap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 13:40SJSNick BoninoAssists: Luke Kunin, Erik Karlsson · Snap, 0.12 xG1–1
- P1 16:19SJSKevin LabancPPAssists: Matt Benning, Matt Nieto · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 0:16BUFJJ PeterkaAssists: Dylan Cozens · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- P2 4:21BUFJeff SkinnerAssists: Henri Jokiharju · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–3
- P2 13:45BUFJack QuinnPPGWGAssists: Victor Olofsson, Rasmus Dahlin · Slap, 0.16 xG2–4
- P3 11:23BUFJack QuinnAssists: Dylan Cozens · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–5
- P3 11:52SJSOskar LindblomAssists: Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Logan Couture · Backhand, 0.09 xG3–5
- P3 16:37BUFAlex TuchENAssists: Jeff Skinner, Tage Thompson · Snap, 0.67 xG3–6
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:33SJSEvgeny Svechnikov: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:39SJSKevin Labanc: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 14:50BUFDylan Cozens: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 0:33SJSTimo Meier: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:09SJSAlexander Barabanov: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 0:00BUFDylan Cozens: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cozens won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- Hertl – Labanc – Svechnikov3:14
xG 0.01–0.10 (8%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Lindblom – Lorentz – Gadjovich6:26
xG 0.15–0.34 (31%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Bonino – Svechnikov – Kunin9:09
xG 0.25–0.60 (29%)attempts 6–9goals 1–1
- Hertl – Labanc – Meier8:49
xG 0.38–0.76 (33%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Vlasic – Benning13:02
xG 0.40–0.78 (34%)attempts 13–15goals 1–0
- Simek – Cicek13:30
xG 0.22–0.76 (22%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
- Karlsson – Megna17:55
xG 0.84–1.78 (32%)attempts 11–18goals 1–2
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestCozens – Quinn – Peterka12:39
xG 1.78–0.39 (82%)attempts 15–5goals 2–0
- Skinner – Tuch – Thompson11:58
xG 1.23–0.37 (77%)attempts 18–13goals 1–0
- Olofsson – Mittelstadt – Krebs3:00
xG 0.04–0.15 (21%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
- Okposo – Girgensons – Krebs8:02
xG 0.13–0.24 (35%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSamuelsson – Dahlin13:56
xG 1.21–0.57 (68%)attempts 13–9goals 1–1
- Jokiharju – Power18:31
xG 0.99–0.64 (61%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Fitzgerald – Bryson12:47
xG 0.67–0.55 (55%)attempts 13–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).