Fri, Dec 9, 2022·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Pittsburgh Penguins 4, Buffalo Sabres 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 06 | 18 | 217 | 12 | 433 |
| BUF | 013 | 211 | 17 | 00 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 15:36PITJake GuentzelPPAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Jeff Petry · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 18:08BUFVictor OlofssonAssists: Tyson Jost, Casey Mittelstadt · Snap, 0.20 xG1–1
- P2 19:15BUFJeff SkinnerAssists: Tage Thompson, Casey Mittelstadt · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
- P3 2:53PITRickard RakellAssists: Danton Heinen · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–2
- P3 16:30PITBrock McGinnAssists: Kasperi Kapanen, Jan Rutta · Slap, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 18:30BUFKyle OkposoPPAssists: Jack Quinn, Casey Mittelstadt · Snap, 0.12 xG3–3
- OT 1:36PITJeff CarterPPGWGAssists: Rickard Rakell, Evgeni Malkin · Tip-in, 0.17 xG4–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 16:40BUFTyson Jost: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:03BUFJacob Bryson: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:55PITJason Zucker: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:20BUFCasey Mittelstadt: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 0:12BUFHenri Jokiharju: High sticking2 min
- P3 4:15PITPierre-Olivier Joseph: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:51PITSidney Crosby: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:58PITEvgeni Malkin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 19:38BUFJeff Skinner: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 19:38PITJake Guentzel: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:38BUFJeff Skinner: Match penalty5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Cozens
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCarter – McGinn – Kapanen8:11
xG 0.26–0.18 (59%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Archibald – Blueger – Heinen5:01
xG 0.41–0.40 (50%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Malkin – Zucker – Rust8:41
xG 0.21–0.25 (45%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rakell – Guentzel13:32
xG 0.31–0.55 (36%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Pettersson17:01
xG 0.70–0.42 (62%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Ruhwedel – Joseph8:15
xG 0.40–0.16 (71%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Dumoulin – Rutta15:21
xG 0.46–1.16 (28%)attempts 10–16goals 2–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOlofsson – Jost – Mittelstadt6:24
xG 0.56–0.12 (82%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Skinner – Tuch – Thompson11:50
xG 0.83–0.47 (64%)attempts 14–7goals 0–1
- Cozens – Quinn – Peterka8:26
xG 0.28–0.28 (50%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
- Okposo – Girgensons – Krebs8:10
xG 0.17–0.42 (29%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSamuelsson – Dahlin13:59
xG 0.83–0.47 (64%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Jokiharju – Samuelsson2:40
xG 0.07–0.01 (88%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Fitzgerald – Bryson4:14
xG 0.27–0.37 (43%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).