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Ice Lab

Fri, Dec 9, 2022·KeyBank Center, Buffalo

Pittsburgh Penguins 4, Buffalo Sabres 3 (OT)

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 67% of the time.

BUF winsPIT wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 0:44Shot by Peterka, saved by Jarry
  3. P1 2:34Shot by Rakell, saved by Anderson
  4. P1 3:03Shot by Peterka, saved by Jarry
  5. P1 4:52Shot by Girgensons, saved by Jarry
  6. P1 4:59Shot by Samuelsson, saved by Jarry
  7. P1 5:29Shot by Olofsson, saved by Jarry
  8. P1 5:52Shot by Jokiharju, saved by Jarry
  9. P1 6:36Shot by Dahlin, saved by Jarry
  10. P1 8:26Shot by Dahlin, saved by Jarry
  11. P1 9:08Shot by Jokiharju, saved by Jarry
  12. P1 9:56Shot by Joseph, saved by Anderson
  13. P1 10:13Shot by Tuch, saved by Jarry
  14. P1 12:23Shot by Okposo, saved by Jarry
  15. P1 12:34Shot by Tuch, saved by Jarry
  16. P1 15:44Shot by Rutta, saved by Anderson
  17. P1 16:24Shot by Carter, saved by Anderson
  18. P1 16:40Jost: High sticking (2 min)5v6

    On ice: BUF Olofsson, Jost, Jokiharju, Cozens, Power · PIT Carter, Malkin, McGinn, Ruhwedel, Kapanen, Joseph

  19. P1 17:46Shot by Malkin, saved by Anderson4v5
  20. P1 18:01Shot by Malkin, saved by Anderson4v5
  21. P1 19:45Shot by Tuch, saved by Jarry
  22. P1 0:00Period end
  23. P2 0:00Period start
  24. P2 0:35Shot by Samuelsson, saved by Jarry
  25. P2 2:54Shot by Power, saved by Jarry
  26. P2 3:46Shot by Power, saved by Jarry
  27. P2 5:16Shot by Tuch, saved by Jarry
  28. P2 5:21Shot by Skinner, saved by Jarry
  29. P2 5:56Shot by Thompson, saved by Jarry
  30. P2 7:03Bryson: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: BUF Olofsson, Jost, Mittelstadt, Jokiharju, Bryson · PIT Malkin, McGinn, Ruhwedel, Kapanen, Joseph

  31. P2 7:11Shot by Petry, saved by Anderson4v5
  32. P2 8:55Zucker: Hooking (2 min)4v5

    On ice: BUF Jokiharju, Samuelsson, Cozens, Peterka · PIT Carter, Zucker, Rust, Kapanen, Joseph

  33. P2 11:13Shot by Zucker, saved by Anderson
  34. P2 11:39Shot by Guentzel, saved by Anderson
  35. P2 14:11Shot by Cozens, saved by Jarry
  36. P2 14:20Mittelstadt: Interference (2 min)

    On ice: BUF Mittelstadt, Bryson, Cozens, Peterka, Power · PIT Rakell, Blueger, Ruhwedel, Guentzel, Rutta

  37. P2 14:40Shot by Malkin, saved by Anderson4v5
  38. P2 15:08Shot by Malkin, saved by Anderson4v5
  39. P2 15:36Goal by Guentzel (Malkin, Petry)4v5+24 pts WP

    On ice: BUF Jost, Jokiharju, Samuelsson, Quinn · PIT Malkin, Crosby, Petry, Rakell, Guentzel

  40. P2 16:52Shot by Blueger, saved by Anderson
  41. P2 17:23Shot by Peterka, saved by Jarry
  42. P2 17:45Shot by Malkin, saved by Anderson
  43. P2 18:08Goal by Olofsson (Jost, Mittelstadt)+26 pts WP

    On ice: BUF Olofsson, Jost, Mittelstadt, Samuelsson, Dahlin · PIT Crosby, Dumoulin, Rakell, Ruhwedel, Guentzel

  44. P2 18:30Shot by Mittelstadt, saved by Jarry
  45. P2 19:15Goal by Skinner (Thompson, Mittelstadt)+23 pts WP

    On ice: BUF Skinner, Thompson, Mittelstadt, Dahlin, Power · PIT Carter, Dumoulin, Rakell, McGinn, Rutta

  46. P2 0:00Period end
  47. P3 0:00Period start
  48. P3 0:12Jokiharju: High sticking (2 min)

    On ice: BUF Jokiharju, Cozens, Quinn, Peterka, Power · PIT Crosby, Petry, Rakell, Guentzel, Pettersson

  49. P3 1:48Shot by Joseph, saved by Anderson4v5
  50. P3 1:57Shot by Carter, saved by Anderson4v5
  51. P3 2:03Shot by Petry, saved by Anderson4v5
  52. P3 2:11Shot by Guentzel, saved by Anderson4v5
  53. P3 2:20Shot by Rutta, saved by Anderson
  54. P3 2:50Shot by Heinen, saved by Anderson
  55. P3 2:53Goal by Rakell (Heinen)+24 pts WP

    On ice: BUF Skinner, Tuch, Thompson, Jokiharju, Power · PIT Crosby, Dumoulin, Rakell, Heinen, Rutta

  56. P3 3:11Shot by Olofsson, saved by Jarry
  57. P3 3:44Shot by Kapanen, saved by Anderson
  58. P3 4:15Joseph: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: BUF Okposo, Girgensons, Jokiharju, Krebs, Power · PIT Malkin, Zucker, Rust, Ruhwedel, Joseph

  59. P3 6:59Shot by Crosby, saved by Anderson
  60. P3 7:52Shot by Joseph, saved by Anderson
  61. P3 8:38Shot by Ruhwedel, saved by Anderson
  62. P3 8:59Shot by Girgensons, saved by Jarry
  63. P3 9:49Shot by Thompson, saved by Jarry
  64. P3 9:51Crosby: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: BUF Skinner, Tuch, Thompson, Jokiharju, Dahlin · PIT Crosby, Petry, Rakell, Guentzel, Pettersson

  65. P3 11:19Shot by Dahlin, saved by Jarry5v4
  66. P3 12:40Shot by Joseph, saved by Anderson
  67. P3 13:12Shot by Joseph, saved by Anderson
  68. P3 15:09Shot by Thompson, saved by Jarry
  69. P3 16:30Goal by McGinn (Kapanen, Rutta)+43 pts WP

    On ice: BUF Jokiharju, Cozens, Quinn, Peterka, Power · PIT Carter, Dumoulin, McGinn, Kapanen, Rutta

  70. P3 16:52Shot by Rust, saved by Anderson
  71. P3 16:58Malkin: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: BUF Skinner, Tuch, Thompson, Samuelsson, Dahlin · PIT Malkin, Petry, Zucker, Rust, Pettersson

  72. P3 17:45Shot by Cozens, saved by Jarry5v4
  73. P3 18:30Goal by Okposo (Quinn, Mittelstadt)6v4+48 pts WP

    On ice: BUF Okposo, Olofsson, Mittelstadt, Quinn, Peterka, Power · PIT Petry, Rust, Archibald, Pettersson

  74. P3 19:20Shot by Rutta, saved by Anderson
  75. P3 19:36Shot by Guentzel, saved by Anderson
  76. P3 19:38Skinner: Slashing (2 min)

    On ice: BUF Skinner, Tuch, Thompson, Samuelsson, Dahlin · PIT Crosby, Dumoulin, Rakell, Guentzel, Rutta

  77. P3 19:38Guentzel: Slashing (2 min)4v5

    On ice: BUF Skinner, Tuch, Thompson, Samuelsson, Dahlin · PIT Crosby, Dumoulin, Rakell, Guentzel, Rutta

  78. P3 19:38Skinner: Match penalty (5 min)4v4

    On ice: BUF Skinner, Tuch, Thompson, Samuelsson, Dahlin · PIT Crosby, Dumoulin, Rakell, Guentzel, Rutta

  79. P3 0:00Period end4v5
  80. OT 0:00Period start
  81. OT 0:47Shot by Crosby, saved by Anderson3v4
  82. OT 1:36Goal by Carter (Rakell, Malkin)3v4+52 pts WP

    On ice: BUF Girgensons, Dahlin, Power · PIT Carter, Malkin, Rakell, Joseph

  83. OT 1:36Period end4v5
  84. OT 1:36Final