Sat, Dec 10, 2022·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Calgary Flames 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 26 | 113 | 17 | 00 | 426 |
| TOR | 29 | 18 | 114 | 13 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:04TORAuston MatthewsPPAssists: William Nylander, Rasmus Sandin · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 9:13CGYNoah HanifinAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Elias Lindholm · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–1
- P1 12:52CGYNazem KadriAssists: Dillon Dube, Andrew Mangiapane · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P1 17:10TORWilliam NylanderPPAssists: Rasmus Sandin, Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- P2 11:11CGYTrevor LewisAssists: Mikael Backlund · Slap, 0.02 xG3–2
- P2 17:19TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Auston Matthews · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–3
- P3 3:31CGYNoah HanifinPPAssists: Adam Ruzicka, Andrew Mangiapane · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–3
- P3 6:10TORMichael BuntingAssists: Auston Matthews, William Nylander · Wrist, 0.23 xG4–4
- OT 0:43TORMitch MarnerPPGWGAssists: William Nylander, John Tavares · Snap, 0.17 xG4–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 3:56CGYNoah Hanifin: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 5:14CGYMichael Stone: High sticking2 min
- P1 8:26CGYNikita Zadorov: Cross checking2 min
- P1 8:26TORWayne Simmonds: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:41CGYMikael Backlund: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 11:37TORMark Giordano: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:07TORWayne Simmonds: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 12:28TORMichael Bunting: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:28CGYNoah Hanifin: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 15:18CGYDan Vladar: Tripping2 min
- OT 0:03CGYJonathan Huberdeau: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- Backlund – Phillips – Ruzicka7:07
xG 0.03–0.02 (60%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Huberdeau – Lindholm10:12
xG 0.05–0.14 (26%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Kadri – Mangiapane – Dube10:15
xG 0.36–0.57 (39%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Lewis – Coleman – Zohorna8:38
xG 0.31–0.69 (31%)attempts 8–11goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – Zadorov3:21
xG 0.21–0.02 (92%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Weegar – Zadorov2:09
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Zadorov – Andersson3:56
xG 0.18–0.25 (42%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestNylander – Bunting – Matthews11:11
xG 0.70–0.13 (85%)attempts 14–6goals 2–0
- Kerfoot – Anderson – Kampf5:45
xG 0.20–0.02 (90%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Tavares – Marner – Malgin6:40
xG 0.23–0.21 (53%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Simmonds – Aston-Reese – Holmberg4:07
xG 0.10–0.10 (50%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLiljegren – Sandin11:58
xG 0.84–0.37 (69%)attempts 15–10goals 2–1
- Brodie – Timmins11:27
xG 0.44–0.18 (70%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- Brodie – Liljegren3:00
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).