Sun, Dec 11, 2022·Mullett Arena, Tempe
Philadelphia Flyers 4, Arizona Coyotes 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 09 | 317 | 113 | 02 | 441 |
| ARI | 113 | 29 | 15 | 12 | 529 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:46ARIClayton KellerPPAssists: J.J. Moser, Nick Ritchie · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 2:09PHIMorgan FrostAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Owen Tippett · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–1
- P2 4:08PHIJames van RiemsdykAssists: Morgan Frost · Snap, 0.18 xG2–1
- P2 7:45ARIClayton KellerAssists: Nick Schmaltz, Travis Boyd · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–2
- P2 10:21ARIJack McBainAssists: J.J. Moser, Liam O'Brien · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–3
- P2 18:42PHIOwen TippettAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Morgan Frost · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–3
- P3 7:27ARINick RitchieUnassisted · Backhand, 0.12 xG3–4
- P3 17:43PHITravis KonecnyAssists: Morgan Frost, James van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.26 xG4–4
- OT 4:37ARIClayton KellerGWGAssists: Jakob Chychrun, Nick Schmaltz · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 10:49PHIRasmus Ristolainen: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 14:43ARITroy Stecher: Interference2 min
- P2 3:50PHINick Seeler: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:50ARILawson Crouse: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:30ARIJoshua Brown: Fighting5 min
- P3 1:30PHIZack MacEwen: Fighting5 min
- P3 8:31ARIJakob Chychrun: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bjugstad won the faceoff against Laughton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestHayes – Konecny – Cates12:28
xG 1.32–0.26 (83%)attempts 23–7goals 0–1
- van Riemsdyk – Tippett – Frost12:05
xG 0.72–0.36 (66%)attempts 16–8goals 2–0
- Sedlak – Laughton – MacEwen2:40
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Deslauriers – Sedlak – Brown3:25
xG 0.02–0.03 (40%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSanheim – York9:46
xG 0.66–0.01 (99%)attempts 16–1goals 1–0
- Ristolainen – Provorov18:01
xG 0.64–0.40 (62%)attempts 18–15goals 0–2
- Braun – Sanheim9:02
xG 0.69–0.49 (58%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- Boyd – Schmaltz – Keller9:07
xG 0.37–0.39 (48%)attempts 6–13goals 1–1
- Ritchie – Keller – Hayton6:47
xG 0.18–0.25 (41%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Bjugstad – Crouse – Maccelli12:12
xG 0.43–0.80 (35%)attempts 8–17goals 0–0
- O'Brien – Fischer – McBain14:07
xG 0.37–0.82 (31%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrown – Moser10:24
xG 0.57–0.20 (74%)attempts 13–9goals 3–0
- Stecher – Välimäki2:38
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Gostisbehere – Chychrun18:18
xG 0.62–1.09 (36%)attempts 12–22goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).