Tue, Dec 13, 2022·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Seattle Kraken 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 113 | 010 | 115 | 238 |
| TBL | 215 | 310 | 15 | 630 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:31TBLIan ColeAssists: Brandon Hagel, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P1 7:24TBLErik CernakAssists: Brayden Point, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–2
- P1 18:39SEAJared McCannAssists: Jordan Eberle · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 12:13TBLCorey PerryPPGWGAssists: Ross Colton, Mikhail Sergachev · Snap, 0.08 xG1–3
- P2 13:28TBLBrayden PointAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–4
- P2 15:36TBLRoss ColtonAssists: Mikhail Sergachev, Anthony Cirelli · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–5
- P3 5:29TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Victor Hedman, Anthony Cirelli · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–6
- P3 19:55SEARyan DonatoAssists: Yanni Gourde · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–6
Penalties (17)
- P2 0:50SEAVince Dunn: Holding2 min
- P2 10:17SEABrandon Tanev: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 4:48SEARyan Donato: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 4:48TBLRoss Colton: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:48TBLPatrick Maroon: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:48SEAYanni Gourde: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:48SEARyan Donato: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:48SEAYanni Gourde: Misconduct10 min
- P3 4:57TBLBrandon Hagel: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:45TBLCal Foote: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:45TBLCal Foote: Fighting5 min
- P3 7:45SEAMorgan Geekie: Fighting5 min
- P3 15:03TBLIan Cole: Holding2 min
- P3 17:20TBLErik Cernak: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 17:20SEABrandon Tanev: Delaying game2 min
- P3 17:20SEABrandon Tanev: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 17:20TBLErik Cernak: Delaying game2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cirelli won the faceoff against Gourde
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestEberle – McCann – Beniers11:33
xG 0.69–0.50 (58%)attempts 16–11goals 1–1
- Sprong – Tanev – Geekie5:03
xG 0.39–0.44 (47%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Gourde – Bjorkstrand – Donato12:16
xG 0.29–0.38 (44%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
- Schwartz – Burakovsky – Wennberg9:09
xG 0.20–0.41 (32%)attempts 11–7goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Soucy – Borgen13:14
xG 0.28–0.33 (46%)attempts 15–8goals 1–1
- Olofsson – Fleury10:32
xG 0.68–0.84 (45%)attempts 14–13goals 0–1
- Larsson – Dunn18:05
xG 0.40–0.90 (31%)attempts 20–19goals 0–2
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Point – Hagel12:52
xG 0.84–0.17 (83%)attempts 17–8goals 3–1
- Maroon – Cirelli – Colton8:23
xG 0.46–0.36 (56%)attempts 10–14goals 1–0
- Maroon – Bellemare – Cirelli2:04
xG 0.01–0.04 (26%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Killorn – Stamkos – Paul10:59
xG 0.35–0.61 (37%)attempts 7–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Cernak11:58
xG 0.69–0.32 (68%)attempts 13–10goals 2–1
- Sergachev – Foote7:29
xG 0.35–0.20 (64%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Fleury – Sergachev7:20
xG 0.16–0.15 (52%)attempts 1–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).