Thu, Dec 15, 2022·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Seattle Kraken 2, Carolina Hurricanes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 97% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 04 | 17 | 16 | 217 |
| CAR | 214 | 113 | 012 | 339 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:10CARAndrei SvechnikovUnassisted · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 17:16CARDerek StepanAssists: Jack Drury, Calvin de Haan · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 2:08CARStefan NoesenGWGUnassisted · Slap, 0.28 xG0–3
- P2 11:26SEARyan DonatoAssists: Carson Soucy, Yanni Gourde · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–3
- P3 9:14SEADaniel SprongAssists: Brandon Tanev, Will Borgen · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 2:26SEADaniel Sprong: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 18:28CARStefan Noesen: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:08SEAAdam Larsson: Penalty shot slash on breakaway0 min
- P2 17:07CARJesperi Kotkaniemi: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:20SEACarson Soucy: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stepan won the faceoff against Geekie
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Schwartz – Beniers4:33
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Sprong – Tanev – Geekie7:56
xG 0.27–0.24 (54%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Schwartz – Burakovsky – Wennberg7:38
xG 0.28–0.41 (40%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Gourde – Bjorkstrand – Donato9:34
xG 0.16–0.43 (27%)attempts 7–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Olofsson – Fleury11:20
xG 0.13–0.68 (16%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
- Soucy – Borgen13:39
xG 0.16–0.77 (17%)attempts 7–14goals 2–1
- Larsson – Dunn19:21
xG 0.48–1.40 (25%)attempts 12–19goals 0–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStepan – Noesen – Drury8:45
xG 0.96–0.27 (78%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Stastny – Necas – Svechnikov13:31
xG 0.96–0.36 (73%)attempts 20–10goals 1–1
- Staal – Fast – Martinook9:45
xG 0.54–0.04 (93%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Teravainen – Kotkaniemi – Jarvis8:36
xG 0.42–0.06 (87%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Slavin17:54
xG 1.32–0.23 (85%)attempts 20–8goals 0–0
- de Haan – Chatfield12:17
xG 1.18–0.32 (79%)attempts 16–7goals 1–0
- Skjei – Pesce16:30
xG 0.62–0.39 (62%)attempts 18–11goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 97% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).