Sat, Dec 17, 2022·Capital One Arena, Washington
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Washington Capitals 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 113 | 114 | 09 | 236 |
| WSH | 214 | 16 | 28 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:12WSHErik GustafssonAssists: Sonny Milano, John Carlson · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 13:12TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Auston Matthews, Alexander Kerfoot · Slap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 14:48WSHTrevor van RiemsdykAssists: Anthony Mantha, Sonny Milano · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 2:51WSHErik GustafssonGWGAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Sonny Milano · Snap, 0.22 xG1–3
- P2 6:25TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Conor Timmins, TJ Brodie · Snap, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 0:10WSHGarnet HathawayAssists: Nick Jensen · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–4
- P3 3:47WSHErik GustafssonAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Aliaksei Protas · Snap, 0.06 xG2–5
Penalties (4)
- P1 18:33WSHNick Jensen: High sticking2 min
- P3 4:16TORAlexander Kerfoot: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:36WSHLars Eller: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:58TORMichael Bunting: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestNylander – Bunting – Matthews11:56
xG 1.39–0.70 (66%)attempts 17–10goals 1–1
- Kerfoot – Engvall – Kampf8:34
xG 0.87–0.58 (60%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Anderson – Aston-Reese – Holmberg6:48
xG 0.22–0.16 (57%)attempts 7–5goals 0–2
- Tavares – Marner – Malgin11:58
xG 0.31–0.56 (35%)attempts 11–11goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestBrodie – Timmins13:23
xG 0.92–0.59 (61%)attempts 18–10goals 2–1
- Giordano – Liljegren2:42
xG 0.39–0.10 (79%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Giordano – Holl12:01
xG 0.82–0.55 (60%)attempts 13–12goals 0–2
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestKuznetsov – Mantha – Milano9:48
xG 0.73–0.59 (55%)attempts 12–6goals 3–1
- Ovechkin – Sheary – Strome11:34
xG 0.59–0.57 (51%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
- Johansson – Kuznetsov – Protas3:04
xG 0.16–0.16 (50%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
- Oshie – Johansson – Protas5:45
xG 0.24–0.28 (46%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Jensen18:04
xG 1.30–0.81 (62%)attempts 19–18goals 1–0
- Carlson – Gustafsson15:15
xG 0.80–1.11 (42%)attempts 14–16goals 3–1
- Irwin – van Riemsdyk13:25
xG 0.24–1.00 (19%)attempts 6–21goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).