Tue, Dec 20, 2022·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Ottawa Senators 1, Winnipeg Jets 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 116 | 07 | 013 | 136 |
| WPG | 310 | 29 | 05 | 524 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:58WPGKevin StenlundAssists: David Gustafsson, Axel Jonsson-Fjallby · Bat, 0.23 xG0–1
- P1 6:58WPGJosh MorrisseyGWGAssists: Dylan DeMelo, Kyle Connor · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
- P1 8:28OTTDrake BathersonPPAssists: Thomas Chabot, Alex DeBrincat · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P1 19:47WPGSam GagnerAssists: Brenden Dillon, Pierre-Luc Dubois · Snap, 0.04 xG1–3
- P2 1:02WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Josh Morrissey, Dylan DeMelo · Snap, 0.05 xG1–4
- P2 14:23WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois, Axel Jonsson-Fjallby · Snap, 0.18 xG1–5
Penalties (3)
- P1 7:48WPGNeal Pionk: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 16:10WPGAdam Lowry: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:09OTTDylan Gambrell: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against Brassard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestChartier – Gambrell – Kelly10:01
xG 0.80–0.03 (97%)attempts 17–3goals 0–0
- DeBrincat – Batherson – Kastelic5:59
xG 0.50–0.13 (79%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- DeBrincat – Batherson – Pinto5:07
xG 0.40–0.19 (68%)attempts 7–8goals 0–2
- Brassard – Watson – Motte4:15
xG 0.03–0.04 (43%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – Brannstrom13:09
xG 0.83–0.15 (84%)attempts 20–5goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Sanderson15:02
xG 0.95–0.54 (64%)attempts 23–12goals 0–2
- Chabot – Brannstrom2:26
xG 0.03–0.14 (17%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestStenlund – Jonsson-Fjallby – Gustafsson6:41
xG 0.61–0.12 (83%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Scheifele – Kuhlman – Perfetti12:13
xG 0.64–0.42 (60%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Lowry – Harkins – Barron11:41
xG 0.47–0.49 (49%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Gagner – Connor – Dubois11:00
xG 0.31–0.84 (27%)attempts 10–16goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Morrissey14:30
xG 0.91–0.70 (56%)attempts 16–14goals 3–0
- Dillon – Heinola5:00
xG 0.07–0.05 (60%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Samberg – Heinola7:55
xG 0.23–0.27 (46%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).