Thu, Dec 22, 2022·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Philadelphia Flyers 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 13 | 05 | 211 | 319 |
| TOR | 011 | 215 | 28 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:17PHITony DeAngeloPPAssists: Kevin Hayes, James van Riemsdyk · Slap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 16:50TORCalle JarnkrokAssists: Mitch Marner, Pierre Engvall · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 19:23TORMitch MarnerPPAssists: John Tavares, William Nylander · Slap, 0.06 xG1–2
- P3 0:33TORMichael BuntingAssists: Auston Matthews, William Nylander · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–3
- P3 11:39TORWilliam NylanderGWGAssists: Mark Giordano, Justin Holl · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–4
- P3 12:01PHIMorgan FrostAssists: Tony DeAngelo, Travis Konecny · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–4
- P3 13:24PHIJoel FarabeeAssists: Travis Konecny · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 3:35TORWilliam Nylander: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 18:34PHINicolas Deslauriers: Holding2 min
- P2 6:42PHITravis Konecny: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:42TORJordie Benn: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:57PHIMorgan Frost: Interference2 min
- P2 10:51TORMark Giordano: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:47PHIJoel Farabee: Holding2 min
- P2 19:10PHIRasmus Ristolainen: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 7:21TORJordie Benn: Interference2 min
- P3 8:20TORMark Giordano: Holding2 min
- P3 18:50TORTimothy Liljegren: Interference2 min
- P3 19:14PHIJoel Farabee: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cates won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestKonecny – Frost – Farabee3:07
xG 0.24–0.18 (57%)attempts 5–1goals 2–0
- Deslauriers – Brown – MacEwen5:58
xG 0.21–0.16 (56%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
- Hayes – Laughton – Allison7:53
xG 0.18–0.39 (32%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Tippett – Frost6:49
xG 0.11–0.33 (26%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Sanheim – York3:22
xG 0.24–0.32 (43%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Sanheim – DeAngelo10:16
xG 0.11–0.19 (37%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- DeAngelo – Provorov2:23
xG 0.08–0.18 (29%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestNylander – Bunting – Matthews9:48
xG 0.83–0.37 (69%)attempts 8–6goals 2–0
- Kerfoot – Engvall – Kampf9:01
xG 0.38–0.15 (71%)attempts 11–4goals 0–1
- Anderson – Aston-Reese – Holmberg7:22
xG 0.37–0.16 (69%)attempts 9–3goals 0–1
- Tavares – Jarnkrok – Marner7:00
xG 0.10–0.23 (29%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Holl10:42
xG 0.46–0.11 (81%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Benn – Liljegren11:03
xG 0.48–0.27 (64%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Brodie – Timmins11:11
xG 0.49–0.42 (54%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).