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Ice Lab

Thu, Dec 22, 2022·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto

Philadelphia Flyers 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 89% of the time.

TOR winsPHI wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 0:33Shot by Bunting, saved by Hart
  3. P1 3:35Nylander: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Brodie, Nylander, Bunting, Matthews, Timmins · PHI van Riemsdyk, Sanheim, DeAngelo, Cates, Farabee

  4. P1 3:44Shot by Marner, saved by Hart4v5
  5. P1 3:45Shot by Marner, saved by Hart4v5
  6. P1 4:17Goal by DeAngelo (Hayes, van Riemsdyk)4v5+11 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Giordano, Holl, Marner, Kampf · PHI van Riemsdyk, Hayes, DeAngelo, Konecny, Frost

  7. P1 4:35Shot by Liljegren, saved by Hart
  8. P1 7:19Shot by Marner, saved by Hart
  9. P1 12:32Shot by Holl, saved by Hart
  10. P1 13:41Shot by Tippett, saved by Samsonov
  11. P1 14:13Shot by Brown, saved by Samsonov
  12. P1 15:40Shot by Engvall, saved by Hart
  13. P1 16:53Shot by Aston-Reese, saved by Hart
  14. P1 17:18Shot by Nylander, saved by Hart
  15. P1 18:34Deslauriers: Holding (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Giordano, Benn, Kerfoot, Engvall, Kampf · PHI Deslauriers, Ristolainen, Brown, Provorov, MacEwen

  16. P1 18:59Shot by Matthews, saved by Hart5v4
  17. P1 19:35Shot by Nylander, saved by Hart5v4
  18. P1 0:00Period end5v4
  19. P2 0:00Period start
  20. P2 1:48Shot by Anderson, saved by Hart
  21. P2 2:47Shot by Aston-Reese, saved by Hart
  22. P2 3:18Shot by Tavares, saved by Hart
  23. P2 3:23Shot by Tavares, saved by Hart
  24. P2 4:11Shot by MacEwen, saved by Samsonov
  25. P2 4:50Shot by Kerfoot, saved by Hart
  26. P2 5:56Shot by Bunting, saved by Hart
  27. P2 5:57Shot by Matthews, saved by Hart
  28. P2 6:12Shot by Aston-Reese, saved by Hart
  29. P2 6:42Shot by Benn, saved by Hart
  30. P2 6:42Konecny: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Benn, Holl, Anderson, Aston-Reese, Holmberg · PHI Sanheim, DeAngelo, Konecny, Cates, Farabee

  31. P2 6:42Benn: Roughing (2 min)5v4

    On ice: TOR Benn, Holl, Anderson, Aston-Reese, Holmberg · PHI Sanheim, DeAngelo, Konecny, Cates, Farabee

  32. P2 7:31Shot by Giordano, saved by Hart4v4
  33. P2 8:11Shot by Sanheim, saved by Samsonov4v4
  34. P2 8:57Frost: Interference (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Benn, Jarnkrok, Kerfoot, Liljegren, Kampf · PHI Braun, van Riemsdyk, Tippett, Frost, York

  35. P2 10:00Shot by Ristolainen, saved by Samsonov5v4
  36. P2 10:51Giordano: Tripping (2 min)5v4

    On ice: TOR Giordano, Engvall, Timmins, Kampf, Holmberg · PHI Deslauriers, Ristolainen, Brown, Provorov

  37. P2 11:27Shot by DeAngelo, saved by Samsonov4v5
  38. P2 14:47Farabee: Holding (2 min)6v5

    On ice: TOR Giordano, Tavares, Nylander, Bunting, Marner, Matthews · PHI Deslauriers, Laughton, Ristolainen, Provorov, Allison

  39. P2 15:26Shot by Tavares, saved by Hart5v4
  40. P2 15:59Shot by Marner, saved by Hart5v4
  41. P2 16:50Goal by Jarnkrok (Marner, Engvall)+26 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Giordano, Jarnkrok, Engvall, Marner, Matthews · PHI Deslauriers, Laughton, Sanheim, Provorov, Farabee

  42. P2 19:10Shot by Nylander, saved by Hart
  43. P2 19:10Ristolainen: Holding (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Brodie, Nylander, Marner, Matthews, Timmins · PHI van Riemsdyk, Ristolainen, Provorov, Tippett, Frost

  44. P2 19:23Goal by Marner (Tavares, Nylander)5v4+23 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Tavares, Nylander, Bunting, Marner, Matthews · PHI Brown, DeAngelo, Konecny, Provorov

  45. P2 19:31Shot by van Riemsdyk, saved by Samsonov
  46. P2 0:00Period end
  47. P3 0:00Period start
  48. P3 0:16Shot by Nylander, saved by Hart
  49. P3 0:33Goal by Bunting (Matthews, Nylander)+15 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Benn, Nylander, Bunting, Matthews, Liljegren · PHI Ristolainen, Konecny, Provorov, Cates, Farabee

  50. P3 2:25Shot by Benn, saved by Hart
  51. P3 4:14Shot by Farabee, saved by Samsonov
  52. P3 4:27Shot by Braun, saved by Samsonov
  53. P3 5:15Shot by Sanheim, saved by Samsonov
  54. P3 7:21Benn: Interference (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Benn, Nylander, Bunting, Matthews, Liljegren · PHI DeAngelo, Konecny, Provorov, Frost, Farabee

  55. P3 8:20Giordano: Holding (2 min)4v5

    On ice: TOR Giordano, Jarnkrok, Kerfoot, Liljegren · PHI Hayes, Laughton, DeAngelo, Cates, Farabee

  56. P3 9:19Shot by Brodie, saved by Hart3v5
  57. P3 9:43Shot by Tippett, saved by Samsonov4v5
  58. P3 9:46Shot by Cates, saved by Samsonov4v5
  59. P3 9:51Shot by Brodie, saved by Hart4v5
  60. P3 10:50Shot by Holmberg, saved by Hart
  61. P3 11:39Goal by Nylander (Giordano, Holl)+3 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Giordano, Holl, Nylander, Bunting, Matthews · PHI Deslauriers, Brown, Sanheim, MacEwen, York

  62. P3 12:01Goal by Frost (DeAngelo, Konecny)+3 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Brodie, Kerfoot, Engvall, Timmins, Kampf · PHI DeAngelo, Konecny, Provorov, Frost, Farabee

  63. P3 12:58Shot by Holmberg, saved by Hart
  64. P3 13:24Goal by Farabee (Konecny)+12 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Giordano, Brodie, Anderson, Aston-Reese, Holmberg · PHI Braun, Ristolainen, Konecny, Frost, Farabee

  65. P3 14:02Shot by Tippett, saved by Samsonov
  66. P3 14:35Shot by Frost, saved by Samsonov
  67. P3 17:37Shot by Frost, saved by Samsonov5v6
  68. P3 18:50Liljegren: Interference (2 min)5v6

    On ice: TOR Brodie, Tavares, Jarnkrok, Marner, Liljegren · PHI van Riemsdyk, Hayes, Laughton, Sanheim, Provorov, Tippett

  69. P3 19:14Farabee: Roughing (2 min)4v6

    On ice: TOR Brodie, Holl, Marner, Kampf · PHI van Riemsdyk, Hayes, DeAngelo, Konecny, Frost, Farabee

  70. P3 19:55Shot by DeAngelo, saved by Samsonov4v5
  71. P3 0:00Period end4v5
  72. P3 0:00Final