Sat, Mar 4, 2023·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Buffalo Sabres 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 113 | 08 | 215 | 336 |
| BUF | 113 | 317 | 14 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:28TBLBrayden PointPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Steven Stamkos · Snap, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 16:15BUFTage ThompsonPPAssists: Rasmus Dahlin · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 5:35BUFVinnie HinostrozaAssists: Casey Mittelstadt, Dylan Cozens · Snap, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 12:30BUFTyson JostUnassisted · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–3
- P2 19:46BUFJack QuinnGWGAssists: Tage Thompson, Jeff Skinner · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–4
- P3 0:53BUFJeff SkinnerPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–5
- P3 2:55TBLAlex KillornAssists: Nick Perbix, Nick Paul · Tip-in, 0.16 xG2–5
- P3 13:18TBLAlex KillornSHAssists: Tanner Jeannot, Victor Hedman · Backhand, 0.19 xG3–5
Penalties (14)
- P1 9:03BUFMattias Samuelsson: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:37BUFRasmus Dahlin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 15:04TBLNick Paul: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 6:21BUFRiley Stillman: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:30TBLPatrick Maroon: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:02BUFRasmus Dahlin: Kneeing2 min
- P2 11:02TBLAnthony Cirelli: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:02BUFJeff Skinner: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:03TBLTanner Jeannot: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:03BUFRiley Stillman: Fighting5 min
- P3 0:27TBLMichael Eyssimont: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 8:23BUFOwen Power: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:44TBLCorey Perry: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:12TBLMikhail Sergachev: Kneeing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stamkos won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPerry – Maroon – Colton4:29
xG 0.35–0.07 (83%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Killorn – Paul – Hagel5:21
xG 0.29–0.06 (82%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Cirelli – Eyssimont – Jeannot3:02
xG 0.16–0.07 (70%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Point – Hagel5:09
xG 0.19–0.15 (56%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Bogosian2:15
xG 0.25–0.05 (83%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Cole – Perbix11:51
xG 0.48–0.34 (58%)attempts 14–8goals 1–1
- Hedman – Raddysh6:06
xG 0.19–0.19 (49%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestHinostroza – Mittelstadt – Cozens8:56
xG 0.86–0.34 (72%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Olofsson – Krebs – Peterka8:12
xG 0.52–0.28 (65%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Okposo – Girgensons – Jost6:32
xG 0.26–0.17 (61%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Skinner – Thompson – Quinn8:29
xG 0.16–0.36 (31%)attempts 3–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestStillman – Lyubushkin5:43
xG 0.79–0.04 (95%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Jokiharju – Power9:53
xG 0.54–0.34 (61%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Samuelsson – Dahlin9:33
xG 0.40–0.24 (63%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).