Sat, Mar 4, 2023·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Buffalo Sabres 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 52% of the time.
44%
9%
40%
BUF winsTBL wins
Who was on the ice
Model-basedLine matchups and every shift of the game.
BUF forward lines and defence pairs (rows) against TBL's (columns) at 5-on-5. Darker cells shared more ice; the second number is xG for–against in that time. Click a cell to highlight it below.
| Maroon–Colton–Eyssimont | Killorn–Paul–Hagel | Kucherov–Point–Hagel | Perry–Maroon–Colton | Killorn–Stamkos–Cirelli | Perry–Paul–Jeannot | Cirelli–Eyssimont–Jeannot | Stamkos–Kucherov–Point | Maroon–Kucherov–Colton | Cole–Perbix | Bogosian–Sergachev | Hedman–Raddysh | Bogosian–Hedman | Raddysh–Sergachev | Cole–Bogosian | Cole–Raddysh | Hedman–Perbix | Hedman–Sergachev | Cole–Sergachev | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hinostroza–Mittelstadt–Cozens | 1:160.44–0.00 | 0:520.00–0.01 | 2:230.15–0.13 | 2:010.03–0.21 | 0:330.07–0.00 | 1:210.09–0.01 | 1:170.49–0.00 | 2:180.13–0.00 | 1:120.05–0.07 | 1:060.00–0.21 | 0:300.09–0.00 | 0:390.02–0.00 | |||||||
| Skinner–Thompson–Quinn | 0:540.00–0.00 | 0:480.00–0.12 | 2:410.11–0.07 | 0:400.00–0.00 | 1:300.00–0.06 | 0:470.00–0.00 | 2:580.16–0.12 | 2:080.00–0.12 | 1:510.00–0.02 | 0:570.00–0.00 | |||||||||
| Olofsson–Krebs–Peterka | 2:420.19–0.00 | 2:320.06–0.21 | 0:300.00–0.02 | 0:480.00–0.00 | 1:360.00–0.21 | 1:380.27–0.06 | 1:290.00–0.02 | 1:130.19–0.00 | 1:330.03–0.00 | ||||||||||
| Okposo–Girgensons–Jost | 1:240.00–0.07 | 0:520.00–0.06 | 2:180.06–0.04 | 3:010.06–0.07 | 0:590.00–0.06 | 0:390.01–0.00 | 0:340.19–0.00 | ||||||||||||
| Krebs–Quinn–Peterka | 0:430.01–0.02 | 0:430.01–0.02 | |||||||||||||||||
| Thompson–Mittelstadt–Quinn | 0:410.02–0.00 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Hinostroza–Jost–Mittelstadt | 0:440.00–0.13 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Jokiharju–Power | 1:140.05–0.00 | 0:450.03–0.01 | 1:590.05–0.14 | 1:170.10–0.00 | 0:500.00–0.00 | 2:410.11–0.01 | 1:500.00–0.19 | 1:200.00–0.01 | 1:220.08–0.00 | 0:530.05–0.07 | 0:330.22–0.00 | ||||||||
| Samuelsson–Dahlin | 0:350.10–0.00 | 1:510.00–0.05 | 0:450.00–0.12 | 2:230.00–0.07 | 0:590.06–0.00 | 3:190.05–0.05 | 1:130.00–0.12 | 1:080.00–0.05 | 0:480.10–0.02 | 1:040.00–0.00 | 1:080.06–0.00 | 0:310.19–0.00 | |||||||
| Stillman–Lyubushkin | 2:110.52–0.00 | 0:460.00–0.00 | 0:300.00–0.02 | 1:540.06–0.00 | 1:310.06–0.02 | 0:350.63–0.00 | 1:060.00–0.02 | 1:460.10–0.00 | |||||||||||
| Lyubushkin–Power | 0:410.02–0.00 | 1:120.03–0.00 | 1:160.00–0.21 | 1:080.00–0.10 | 0:460.00–0.00 | 0:400.00–0.00 | 0:560.03–0.00 | 0:420.00–0.21 | 0:350.00–0.03 | ||||||||||
| Samuelsson–Lyubushkin | 1:040.00–0.03 | 0:490.07–0.06 | 0:310.07–0.00 | 1:580.00–0.09 | 0:370.07–0.00 | 0:310.07–0.00 | |||||||||||||
| Jokiharju–Samuelsson | 0:560.00–0.05 | 0:450.00–0.00 | 0:390.00–0.05 | 0:430.00–0.00 | |||||||||||||||
| Samuelsson–Power | 0:320.00–0.04 | 0:450.00–0.00 | 0:310.00–0.00 | ||||||||||||||||
| Jokiharju–Lyubushkin | 0:330.00–0.16 | 0:450.03–0.00 | 0:420.00–0.16 | 0:370.03–0.00 |
Every shift, one row per player.
BUFTBLFull-height lines are goals; short ticks at the top are shots. Hover to see who was on the ice.
Shift totals
 Owen PowerBUF | 32 | 24:54 | 0:47 | 1:49 | 4 | 7 |
 Mikhail SergachevTBL | 27 | 24:32 | 0:55 | 1:51 | 7 | 8 |
 Mattias SamuelssonBUF | 30 | 24:22 | 0:49 | 1:38 | 4 | 5 |
 Ilya LyubushkinBUF | 30 | 23:17 | 0:47 | 1:50 | 1 | 8 |
 Ian ColeTBL | 24 | 22:52 | 0:57 | 2:59 | 1 | 6 |
 Henri JokiharjuBUF | 32 | 20:26 | 0:38 | 1:29 | 2 | 9 |
 Victor HedmanTBL | 27 | 19:50 | 0:44 | 1:58 | 5 | 0 |
 Brandon HagelTBL | 23 | 18:25 | 0:48 | 1:23 | 2 | 4 |
 Alex KillornTBL | 24 | 18:18 | 0:46 | 1:34 | 2 | 4 |
 Tage ThompsonBUF | 20 | 18:15 | 0:55 | 1:54 | 4 | 1 |
 Nick PerbixTBL | 26 | 17:20 | 0:40 | 1:22 | 1 | 7 |
 Jeff SkinnerBUF | 19 | 16:56 | 0:53 | 1:42 | 5 | 1 |
 Peyton KrebsBUF | 23 | 16:45 | 0:44 | 1:55 | 3 | 9 |
 Zach BogosianTBL | 21 | 16:41 | 0:48 | 1:47 | 1 | 4 |
 Nikita KucherovTBL | 15 | 16:38 | 1:07 | 2:44 | 6 | 0 |
 Nick PaulTBL | 22 | 15:59 | 0:44 | 1:24 | 3 | 4 |
 Anthony CirelliTBL | 23 | 15:45 | 0:41 | 1:18 | 2 | 8 |
 Rasmus DahlinBUF | 22 | 15:43 | 0:43 | 1:55 | 8 | 1 |
 Dylan CozensBUF | 21 | 15:27 | 0:44 | 1:36 | 4 | 2 |
 Ross ColtonTBL | 20 | 15:08 | 0:45 | 1:12 | 4 | 3 |
 Casey MittelstadtBUF | 18 | 14:43 | 0:49 | 1:42 | 2 | 2 |
 Brayden PointTBL | 15 | 14:34 | 0:58 | 1:51 | 7 | 0 |
 Patrick MaroonTBL | 16 | 14:28 | 0:54 | 1:40 | 3 | 2 |
 Kyle OkposoBUF | 16 | 14:16 | 0:54 | 1:50 | 2 | 5 |
 Jack QuinnBUF | 19 | 14:16 | 0:45 | 1:28 | 3 | 0 |
 Tyson JostBUF | 14 | 13:55 | 1:00 | 1:51 | 2 | 3 |
 Victor OlofssonBUF | 18 | 13:32 | 0:45 | 1:11 | 6 | 3 |
 Steven StamkosTBL | 15 | 13:28 | 0:54 | 2:17 | 3 | 5 |
 Corey PerryTBL | 20 | 13:23 | 0:40 | 1:11 | 2 | 1 |
 Tanner JeannotTBL | 16 | 12:52 | 0:48 | 1:13 | 1 | 4 |
 Michael EyssimontTBL | 17 | 12:20 | 0:44 | 1:08 | 1 | 4 |
 Darren RaddyshTBL | 16 | 12:20 | 0:46 | 1:24 | 1 | 1 |
 Vinnie HinostrozaBUF | 15 | 12:04 | 0:48 | 1:23 | 1 | 1 |
 JJ PeterkaBUF | 16 | 11:51 | 0:44 | 1:14 | 2 | 3 |
 Zemgus GirgensonsBUF | 16 | 11:36 | 0:44 | 1:16 | 2 | 1 |
 Riley StillmanBUF | 15 | 7:57 | 0:32 | 0:55 | 1 | 3 |