Sat, Mar 4, 2023·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Buffalo Sabres 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 52% of the time.
44%
9%
40%
BUF winsTBL wins
Tampa Bay Lightning
Official boxscore lines, plus individual xG, on-ice expected-goals share at 5-on-5 and win probability added (percentage points).
 Mikhail SergachevD · #98 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 2 | 24:32 | 0.15 | 32.0% | 0.0 |
 Ian ColeD · #28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 5 | 22:52 | 0.13 | 61.6% | 0.0 |
 Victor HedmanD · #77 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 19:50 | 0.11 | 18.1% | +2.5 |
 Brandon HagelLW · #38 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:25 | 0.00 | 69.1% | 0.0 |
 Alex KillornLW · #17 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 18:18 | 0.40 | 51.3% | +4.3 |
 Nick PerbixD · #48 | 0 | 1 | 1 | −1 | 1 | 17:20 | 0.03 | 45.6% | +1.8 |
 Zach BogosianD · #24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 16:41 | 0.02 | 38.1% | 0.0 |
 Nikita KucherovRW · #86 | 0 | 1 | 1 | −1 | 2 | 16:38 | 0.39 | 37.2% | +16.4 |
 Nick PaulLW · #20 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 | 15:59 | 0.23 | 61.0% | +1.8 |
 Anthony CirelliC · #71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 0 | 15:45 | 0.00 | 33.9% | 0.0 |
 Ross ColtonC · #79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 15:08 | 0.43 | 36.5% | 0.0 |
 Brayden PointC · #21 | 1 | 0 | 1 | −2 | 7 | 14:34 | 0.83 | 48.8% | +16.4 |
 Patrick MaroonLW · #14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:28 | 0.00 | 30.3% | 0.0 |
 Steven StamkosC · #91 | 0 | 1 | 1 | −3 | 1 | 13:28 | 0.06 | 19.6% | +16.4 |
 Corey PerryRW · #10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 1 | 13:23 | 0.19 | 64.6% | 0.0 |
 Tanner JeannotLW · #84 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 12:52 | 0.11 | 51.2% | +2.5 |
 Michael EyssimontC · #23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12:20 | 0.12 | 19.3% | 0.0 |
 Darren RaddyshD · #43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12:20 | 0.02 | 43.2% | 0.0 |
 Brian Elliott#1 | L | 34 | 29 | 5 | .853 | 3.35 | −1.6 | 57:30 |
Buffalo Sabres
Official boxscore lines, plus individual xG, on-ice expected-goals share at 5-on-5 and win probability added (percentage points).
 Owen PowerD · #25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 1 | 24:54 | 0.09 | 52.8% | 0.0 |
 Mattias SamuelssonD · #23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 | 24:22 | 0.13 | 57.3% | 0.0 |
 Ilya LyubushkinD · #46 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 23:17 | 0.01 | 61.4% | 0.0 |
 Henri JokiharjuD · #10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20:26 | 0.06 | 51.5% | 0.0 |
 Tage ThompsonC · #72 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 18:15 | 0.05 | 39.3% | +22.2 |
 Jeff SkinnerLW · #53 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 1 | 16:56 | 0.20 | 32.9% | +7.9 |
 Peyton KrebsC · #19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −2 | 1 | 16:45 | 0.07 | 66.9% | 0.0 |
 Rasmus DahlinD · #26 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:43 | 0.00 | 53.6% | +16.1 |
 Dylan CozensC · #24 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 5 | 15:27 | 0.76 | 66.4% | +20.1 |
 Casey MittelstadtC · #37 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 | 14:43 | 0.58 | 66.1% | +20.1 |
 Kyle OkposoRW · #21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 14:16 | 0.11 | 63.4% | 0.0 |
 Jack QuinnRW · #22 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 14:16 | 0.05 | 41.5% | +6.2 |
 Tyson JostC · #17 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 4 | 13:55 | 0.43 | 55.9% | +15.6 |
 Victor OlofssonLW · #71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −2 | 3 | 13:32 | 0.50 | 67.4% | 0.0 |
 Vinnie HinostrozaC · #29 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 12:04 | 0.11 | 66.8% | +20.1 |
 JJ PeterkaRW · #77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 1 | 11:51 | 0.17 | 69.1% | 0.0 |
 Zemgus GirgensonsC · #28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11:36 | 0.02 | 60.6% | 0.0 |
 Riley StillmanD · #61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:57 | 0.01 | 87.0% | 0.0 |
 Eric Comrie#31 | W | 36 | 33 | 3 | .917 | 3.21 | +0.2 | 59:54 |