Thu, Dec 29, 2022·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Detroit Red Wings 3, Buffalo Sabres 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 07 | 07 | 317 | 331 |
| BUF | 114 | 411 | 110 | 635 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:32BUFCasey MittelstadtAssists: JJ Peterka, Owen Power · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 1:20BUFJeff SkinnerUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–2
- P2 10:28BUFCasey MittelstadtPPAssists: Owen Power, JJ Peterka · Backhand, 0.13 xG0–3
- P2 11:21BUFKyle OkposoGWGAssists: Zemgus Girgensons, Peyton Krebs · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–4
- P2 14:02BUFKyle OkposoAssists: Tyson Jost · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–5
- P3 2:35DETDominik KubalikAssists: Elmer Soderblom · Snap, 0.16 xG1–5
- P3 4:23DETDominik KubalikPPAssists: Joseph Veleno, Oskar Sundqvist · Snap, 0.16 xG2–5
- P3 7:11DETJordan OesterleAssists: Andrew Copp, Jonatan Berggren · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–5
- P3 16:22BUFKyle OkposoENAssists: Zemgus Girgensons, Dylan Cozens · Snap, 0.77 xG3–6
Penalties (8)
- P1 13:29DETJonatan Berggren: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:31DETAdam Erne: Cross checking2 min
- P1 18:51BUFOwen Power: Interference2 min
- P2 9:14DETElmer Soderblom: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 16:48BUFJJ Peterka: Embellishment2 min
- P3 3:34BUFRasmus Dahlin: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 9:12DETMoritz Seider: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:28DETJoseph Veleno: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Rasmussen won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestKubalik – Veleno – Soderblom2:26
xG 0.28–0.01 (95%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Veleno – Berggren – Soderblom7:45
xG 0.45–0.23 (66%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Copp – Berggren – Raymond2:05
xG 0.04–0.16 (22%)attempts 1–2goals 1–0
- Perron – Larkin – Rasmussen10:04
xG 0.40–0.61 (39%)attempts 8–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestMaatta – Oesterle13:06
xG 0.55–0.23 (71%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Chiarot – Seider14:45
xG 0.33–0.70 (32%)attempts 9–15goals 1–1
- Walman – Hronek12:46
xG 0.52–1.32 (28%)attempts 8–19goals 0–2
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestCozens – Quinn – Peterka7:41
xG 0.71–0.21 (77%)attempts 12–3goals 0–1
- Skinner – Tuch – Thompson13:29
xG 0.54–0.17 (76%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Okposo – Girgensons – Krebs8:43
xG 0.55–0.32 (63%)attempts 7–6goals 1–1
- Olofsson – Jost – Mittelstadt7:48
xG 0.03–0.66 (5%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSamuelsson – Dahlin15:00
xG 0.92–0.22 (81%)attempts 17–5goals 0–0
- Lyubushkin – Power3:22
xG 0.27–0.15 (64%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
- Bryson – Lyubushkin9:39
xG 0.73–0.63 (54%)attempts 9–7goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).