Sat, Dec 31, 2022·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Arizona Coyotes 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 212 | 18 | 011 | 331 |
| TBL | 113 | 313 | 19 | 535 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:12ARITravis BoydAssists: Clayton Keller · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 6:46ARIChristian FischerAssists: Nick Ritchie, Barrett Hayton · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–0
- P1 10:53TBLBrayden PointAssists: Nikita Kucherov · Bat, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 10:44TBLMikhail SergachevAssists: Brayden Point, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
- P2 11:12TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Victor Hedman, Nikita Kucherov · Slap, 0.09 xG2–3
- P2 12:44ARINick BjugstadAssists: Lawson Crouse · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–3
- P2 18:59TBLAlex KillornGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–4
- P3 4:26TBLBrandon HagelPPAssists: Victor Hedman, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:57TBLErik Cernak: Interference2 min
- P1 13:04ARILaurent Dauphin: Holding2 min
- P2 10:44ARIZack Kassian: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min · PPG
- P3 2:50ARIJoshua Brown: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P3 2:50TBLPatrick Maroon: Fighting5 min
- P3 2:50ARIJoshua Brown: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bjugstad won the faceoff against Stamkos
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestRitchie – Fischer – Hayton12:19
xG 0.88–0.60 (59%)attempts 9–16goals 1–0
- Kassian – Dauphin – Keller4:43
xG 0.01–0.02 (44%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Boyd – Keller – Carcone12:05
xG 0.29–0.35 (45%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Bjugstad – Crouse – McBain10:55
xG 0.35–0.65 (35%)attempts 7–12goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestBrown – Välimäki2:37
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 1–0
- Gostisbehere – Chychrun18:10
xG 1.00–1.05 (49%)attempts 19–16goals 1–1
- Brown – Moser6:39
xG 0.28–0.43 (40%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Point – Hagel13:32
xG 1.08–0.46 (70%)attempts 20–9goals 2–0
- Maroon – Paul – Colton7:49
xG 0.14–0.14 (51%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
- Perry – Namestnikov – Bellemare7:57
xG 0.15–0.20 (42%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Killorn – Stamkos – Cirelli11:35
xG 0.70–0.79 (47%)attempts 9–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Sergachev8:18
xG 0.36–0.22 (62%)attempts 6–4goals 2–0
- Sergachev – Perbix10:27
xG 0.32–0.22 (59%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
- Bogosian – Hedman11:20
xG 0.59–0.54 (52%)attempts 17–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).