Tue, Jan 3, 2023·FLA Live Arena, Sunrise
Arizona Coyotes 3, Florida Panthers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 112 | 210 | 014 | 336 |
| FLA | 28 | 320 | 09 | 537 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:09FLAMatthew TkachukAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Gustav Forsling · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 11:21FLAEric StaalUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
- P1 19:57ARIJakob ChychrunPPAssists: Clayton Keller, Nick Schmaltz · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–2
- P2 5:17ARIClayton KellerAssists: Juuso Välimäki · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 10:37FLAMatthew TkachukAssists: Josh Mahura · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–3
- P2 13:59ARINick BjugstadAssists: J.J. Moser, Jack McBain · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–3
- P2 16:01FLAEric StaalGWGAssists: Ryan Lomberg, Matthew Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–4
- P2 19:29FLAMatthew TkachukPPAssists: Sam Reinhart, Spencer Knight · Wrist, 0.24 xG3–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 19:20FLAAaron Ekblad: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 18:19ARIKarel Vejmelka: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 3:18ARINick Bjugstad: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:01FLAMatthew Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:01ARINick Ritchie: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:01FLARadko Gudas: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bennett won the faceoff against Bjugstad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestDauphin – Keller – Carcone3:31
xG 0.24–0.03 (90%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Boyd – Schmaltz – Keller11:49
xG 0.55–0.53 (51%)attempts 10–12goals 1–2
- Bjugstad – Crouse – McBain11:49
xG 0.30–0.40 (43%)attempts 9–9goals 1–1
- Ritchie – Fischer – Hayton9:37
xG 0.43–0.56 (43%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGostisbehere – Chychrun18:49
xG 0.82–0.63 (57%)attempts 17–14goals 0–1
- Brown – Moser5:46
xG 0.30–0.29 (51%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Brown – Välimäki2:07
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Lomberg – Smith8:07
xG 0.77–0.26 (75%)attempts 17–7goals 1–0
- Cousins – White – Lundell3:34
xG 0.12–0.03 (77%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Reinhart – Bennett – Luostarinen6:14
xG 0.07–0.11 (39%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Bennett – White – Luostarinen6:07
xG 0.14–0.18 (43%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Montour16:32
xG 0.77–0.53 (59%)attempts 17–14goals 2–1
- Gudas – Mahura13:33
xG 0.59–0.54 (52%)attempts 16–17goals 1–0
- Ekblad – Forsling18:58
xG 0.43–1.01 (30%)attempts 11–18goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).