Tue, Jan 3, 2023·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
St. Louis Blues 6, Toronto Maple Leafs 5 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 210 | 313 | 04 | 05 | 3 | 632 |
| TOR | 18 | 39 | 17 | 01 | 2 | 525 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:52STLBrandon SaadSHAssists: Noel Acciari, Colton Parayko · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 13:01STLBrayden SchennPPAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Robert Thomas · Deflected, 0.14 xG2–0
- P1 17:28TORPierre EngvallAssists: Alexander Kerfoot, David Kampf · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 3:09STLJordan KyrouPPAssists: Pavel Buchnevich · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–1
- P2 4:38TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Michael Bunting, Auston Matthews · Slap, 0.03 xG3–2
- P2 10:28STLJosh LeivoAssists: Jake Neighbours, Noel Acciari · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–2
- P2 10:45TORMichael BuntingAssists: TJ Brodie · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–3
- P2 11:45STLBrandon SaadAssists: Brayden Schenn, Colton Parayko · Wrist, 0.08 xG5–3
- P2 14:37TORAuston MatthewsAssists: William Nylander, Timothy Liljegren · Wrist, 0.06 xG5–4
- P3 7:55TORMichael BuntingPPAssists: William Nylander, Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.12 xG5–5
Shootout
- 1. TOR William Nylander stopped
- 2. STL Jordan Kyrou stopped
- 3. TOR Auston Matthews scored
- 4. STL Robert Thomas scored
- 5. TOR Mitch Marner scored
- 6. STL Pavel Buchnevich scored
- 7. TOR Rasmus Sandin stopped
- 8. STL Brayden Schenn scored
Penalties (5)
- P1 4:10STLJustin Faulk: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:02STLTyler Pitlick: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:14TORMichael Bunting: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 1:53TORJohn Tavares: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 6:54STLRobert Thomas: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kampf won the faceoff against Thomas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestLeivo – Acciari – Neighbours7:33
xG 1.01–0.34 (75%)attempts 7–7goals 1–1
- Pitlick – Toropchenko – Alexandrov5:14
xG 0.02–0.15 (12%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Schenn – Saad – Barbashev12:50
xG 0.43–0.61 (41%)attempts 11–17goals 1–2
- Buchnevich – Kyrou – Thomas12:56
xG 0.10–0.35 (23%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLeddy – Faulk16:14
xG 0.98–0.37 (73%)attempts 18–9goals 0–0
- Bortuzzo – Leddy2:07
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Faulk – Rosen2:03
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestNylander – Bunting – Matthews13:10
xG 0.84–0.34 (71%)attempts 14–12goals 3–0
- Tavares – Jarnkrok – Marner10:25
xG 0.34–0.17 (67%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Kerfoot – Engvall – Kampf11:06
xG 0.12–0.36 (26%)attempts 4–9goals 1–0
- Hunt – Aston-Reese – Holmberg6:51
xG 0.23–0.93 (19%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLiljegren – Sandin11:48
xG 0.58–0.35 (63%)attempts 13–6goals 2–1
- Giordano – Holl14:09
xG 0.63–0.55 (53%)attempts 17–14goals 1–1
- Giordano – Liljegren2:07
xG 0.03–0.08 (28%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).