Wed, Jan 4, 2023·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Tampa Bay Lightning 1, Minnesota Wild 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 011 | 112 | 012 | 135 |
| MIN | 112 | 312 | 19 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:30MINJoel Eriksson EkAssists: Calen Addison, Marcus Foligno · Deflected, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 7:09MINKirill KaprizovPPGWGAssists: Matt Boldy, Calen Addison · Tip-in, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 9:27MINCalen AddisonAssists: Ryan Hartman, Matt Boldy · Slap, 0.01 xG0–3
- P2 13:37TBLBrayden PointPPAssists: Brandon Hagel, Nikita Kucherov · Snap, 0.24 xG1–3
- P2 15:35MINSam SteelAssists: Jared Spurgeon · Deflected, 0.11 xG1–4
- P3 17:57MINKirill KaprizovENUnassisted · Snap, 0.66 xG1–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 9:14MINJordan Greenway: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:04TBLSteven Stamkos: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 10:07TBLAlex Killorn: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:23MINRyan Hartman: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 12:23TBLAnthony Cirelli: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:23MINRyan Hartman: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:50MINMathew Dumba: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 13:29TBLCorey Perry: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 14:03TBLBrandon Hagel: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:03MINJoel Eriksson Ek: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Paul won the faceoff against Steel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Kucherov – Point6:22
xG 0.51–0.23 (68%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Maroon – Paul – Colton9:32
xG 0.34–0.20 (63%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Kucherov – Point – Hagel5:42
xG 0.52–0.42 (55%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Killorn – Cirelli – Hagel3:09
xG 0.28–0.23 (55%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSergachev – Perbix7:05
xG 0.71–0.25 (74%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
- Hedman – Fleury2:41
xG 0.20–0.11 (65%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Cernak – Sergachev2:54
xG 0.19–0.17 (52%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestZuccarello – Kaprizov – Steel9:50
xG 0.84–0.47 (64%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- Foligno – Greenway – Eriksson Ek9:31
xG 0.21–0.06 (78%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Reaves – Shaw – Dewar8:21
xG 0.29–0.50 (36%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Hartman – Gaudreau – Boldy8:16
xG 0.23–0.46 (33%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Dumba16:51
xG 0.99–0.65 (61%)attempts 23–13goals 0–0
- Merrill – Addison11:18
xG 0.31–0.40 (44%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
- Merrill – Dumba2:45
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).