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Ice Lab

Wed, Jan 4, 2023·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul

Tampa Bay Lightning 1, Minnesota Wild 5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 50% of the time.

MIN winsTBL wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 1:25Shot by Brodin, saved by Elliott
  3. P1 1:53Shot by Boldy, saved by Elliott
  4. P1 2:05Shot by Point, saved by Gustavsson
  5. P1 3:28Shot by Steel, saved by Elliott
  6. P1 5:35Shot by Perbix, saved by Gustavsson
  7. P1 5:52Shot by Boldy, saved by Elliott
  8. P1 7:12Shot by Dumba, saved by Elliott
  9. P1 7:38Shot by Kaprizov, saved by Elliott
  10. P1 7:50Shot by Kaprizov, saved by Elliott
  11. P1 8:17Shot by Point, saved by Gustavsson
  12. P1 8:56Shot by Hedman, saved by Gustavsson
  13. P1 9:14Greenway: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: MIN Foligno, Merrill, Greenway, Eriksson Ek, Addison · TBL Perry, Hedman, Bellemare, Colton, Foote

  14. P1 10:38Shot by Colton, saved by Gustavsson4v5
  15. P1 10:48Shot by Killorn, saved by Gustavsson4v5
  16. P1 11:06Shot by Stamkos, saved by Gustavsson4v5
  17. P1 11:54Shot by Paul, saved by Gustavsson
  18. P1 12:48Shot by Bellemare, saved by Gustavsson
  19. P1 13:36Shot by Hartman, saved by Elliott
  20. P1 14:30Goal by Eriksson Ek (Addison, Foligno)+19 pts WP

    On ice: MIN Foligno, Brodin, Greenway, Eriksson Ek, Addison · TBL Maroon, Paul, Sergachev, Colton, Perbix

  21. P1 14:50Shot by Point, saved by Gustavsson
  22. P1 15:45Shot by Kaprizov, saved by Elliott
  23. P1 16:07Shot by Merrill, saved by Elliott
  24. P1 17:03Shot by Cirelli, saved by Gustavsson
  25. P1 17:48Shot by Foligno, saved by Elliott
  26. P1 0:00Period end
  27. P2 0:00Period start
  28. P2 0:20Shot by Steel, saved by Elliott
  29. P2 2:08Shot by Maroon, saved by Gustavsson
  30. P2 2:16Shot by Paul, saved by Gustavsson
  31. P2 3:12Shot by Eriksson Ek, saved by Elliott
  32. P2 4:09Shot by Perbix, saved by Gustavsson
  33. P2 5:49Shot by Middleton, saved by Elliott
  34. P2 6:04Stamkos: Tripping (2 min)6v5

    On ice: MIN Spurgeon, Zuccarello, Gaudreau, Middleton, Kaprizov, Steel · TBL Killorn, Stamkos, Hedman, Cirelli, Sergachev

  35. P2 6:17Shot by Cirelli, saved by Gustavsson5v4
  36. P2 7:09Goal by Kaprizov (Boldy, Addison)5v4+13 pts WP

    On ice: MIN Zuccarello, Eriksson Ek, Kaprizov, Addison, Boldy · TBL Cole, Cernak, Cirelli, Hagel

  37. P2 8:36Shot by Perry, saved by Gustavsson
  38. P2 8:45Shot by Hedman, saved by Gustavsson
  39. P2 9:15Shot by Boldy, saved by Elliott
  40. P2 9:27Goal by Addison (Hartman, Boldy)+7 pts WP

    On ice: MIN Merrill, Hartman, Gaudreau, Addison, Boldy · TBL Perry, Hedman, Bellemare, Fleury, Hagel

  41. P2 10:07Killorn: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: MIN Spurgeon, Merrill, Hartman, Gaudreau, Boldy · TBL Killorn, Stamkos, Cirelli, Sergachev, Perbix

  42. P2 10:14Shot by Addison, saved by Elliott5v4
  43. P2 11:17Shot by Kaprizov, saved by Elliott5v4
  44. P2 12:19Shot by Hagel, saved by Gustavsson
  45. P2 12:23Hartman: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: MIN Spurgeon, Foligno, Hartman, Gaudreau, Steel · TBL Killorn, Hedman, Cirelli, Sergachev, Hagel

  46. P2 12:23Cirelli: Roughing (2 min)4v5

    On ice: MIN Spurgeon, Foligno, Hartman, Gaudreau, Steel · TBL Killorn, Hedman, Cirelli, Sergachev, Hagel

  47. P2 12:23Hartman: Roughing (2 min)4v4

    On ice: MIN Spurgeon, Foligno, Hartman, Gaudreau, Steel · TBL Killorn, Hedman, Cirelli, Sergachev, Hagel

  48. P2 12:38Shot by Eriksson Ek, saved by Elliott4v5
  49. P2 13:37Goal by Point (Hagel, Kucherov)4v5+7 pts WP

    On ice: MIN Foligno, Dumba, Middleton, Steel · TBL Stamkos, Hedman, Kucherov, Point, Hagel

  50. P2 15:29Shot by Zuccarello, saved by Elliott
  51. P2 15:35Goal by Steel (Spurgeon)+7 pts WP

    On ice: MIN Spurgeon, Zuccarello, Middleton, Kaprizov, Steel · TBL Killorn, Cernak, Cirelli, Sergachev, Hagel

  52. P2 15:58Shot by Hagel, saved by Gustavsson
  53. P2 17:32Shot by Stamkos, saved by Gustavsson
  54. P2 17:47Shot by Foote, saved by Gustavsson
  55. P2 17:50Dumba: High sticking double minor (4 min)

    On ice: MIN Foligno, Merrill, Dumba, Greenway, Eriksson Ek · TBL Stamkos, Hedman, Kucherov, Point, Foote

  56. P2 19:14Shot by Shaw, saved by Elliott4v5
  57. P2 19:59Shot by Kucherov, saved by Gustavsson4v5
  58. P2 0:00Period end4v5
  59. P3 0:00Period start
  60. P3 0:50Shot by Stamkos, saved by Gustavsson4v5
  61. P3 1:52Shot by Kucherov, saved by Gustavsson
  62. P3 2:05Shot by Perbix, saved by Gustavsson
  63. P3 4:46Shot by Hedman, saved by Gustavsson
  64. P3 6:21Shot by Kucherov, saved by Gustavsson
  65. P3 6:49Shot by Eriksson Ek, saved by Elliott
  66. P3 7:53Shot by Dumba, saved by Elliott
  67. P3 9:10Shot by Bellemare, saved by Gustavsson
  68. P3 10:07Shot by Dumba, saved by Elliott
  69. P3 10:29Shot by Killorn, saved by Gustavsson
  70. P3 11:04Shot by Hagel, saved by Gustavsson
  71. P3 11:59Shot by Hedman, saved by Gustavsson
  72. P3 12:36Shot by Paul, saved by Gustavsson
  73. P3 13:29Perry: Too many men on the ice (2 min)

    On ice: MIN Reaves, Brodin, Dumba, Shaw, Dewar · TBL Perry, Paul, Sergachev, Hagel, Perbix

  74. P3 14:02Shot by Boldy, saved by Elliott5v4
  75. P3 14:03Hagel: Roughing (2 min)5v4

    On ice: MIN Zuccarello, Eriksson Ek, Kaprizov, Addison, Boldy · TBL Cole, Cernak, Cirelli, Hagel

  76. P3 14:03Eriksson Ek: High sticking (2 min)5v3

    On ice: MIN Zuccarello, Eriksson Ek, Kaprizov, Addison, Boldy · TBL Cole, Cernak, Cirelli, Hagel

  77. P3 16:06Shot by Dewar, saved by Elliott
  78. P3 16:10Shot by Shaw, saved by Elliott
  79. P3 16:16Shot by Brodin, saved by Elliott
  80. P3 16:29Shot by Foligno, saved by Elliott
  81. P3 17:18Shot by Kucherov, saved by Gustavsson5v6
  82. P3 17:39Shot by Kucherov, saved by Gustavsson5v6
  83. P3 17:57Goal by Kaprizov, unassisted5v60 pts WP

    On ice: MIN Spurgeon, Zuccarello, Middleton, Kaprizov, Steel · TBL Maroon, Paul, Cirelli, Sergachev, Colton, Hagel

  84. P3 0:00Period end
  85. P3 0:00Final