Fri, Jan 6, 2023·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Winnipeg Jets 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 112 | 15 | 011 | 228 |
| WPG | 14 | 19 | 27 | 420 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:48TBLAnthony CirelliAssists: Steven Stamkos · Snap, 0.28 xG1–0
- P1 19:21WPGPierre-Luc DuboisAssists: Kyle Connor, Josh Morrissey · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 1:35TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Ian Cole, Anthony Cirelli · Snap, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 7:05WPGPierre-Luc DuboisPPAssists: Josh Morrissey, Mark Scheifele · Tip-in, 0.24 xG2–2
- P3 5:38WPGKyle ConnorPPGWGAssists: Mark Scheifele, Josh Morrissey · Slap, 0.15 xG2–3
- P3 18:34WPGMorgan BarronENAssists: Adam Lowry · Wrap-around, 0.80 xG2–4
Penalties (16)
- P1 14:00TBLVladislav Namestnikov: High sticking2 min
- P1 18:27WPGNeal Pionk: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:27TBLAnthony Cirelli: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:32TBLCal Foote: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 6:05TBLNick Paul: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:14TBLCal Foote: Cross checking2 min
- P2 9:14WPGPierre-Luc Dubois: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:14TBLCal Foote: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:56WPGKyle Connor: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:34TBLSteven Stamkos: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 4:40TBLVladislav Namestnikov: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 5:55WPGBlake Wheeler: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 10:44WPGMark Scheifele: Fighting5 min
- P3 10:44TBLAnthony Cirelli: Fighting5 min
- P3 11:48WPGPierre-Luc Dubois: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:08WPGKyle Connor: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against Point
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Stamkos – Cirelli8:13
xG 0.87–0.39 (69%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Perry – Namestnikov – Bellemare4:42
xG 0.16–0.09 (63%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Kucherov – Point2:29
xG 0.06–0.04 (61%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Maroon – Paul – Colton6:45
xG 0.32–0.40 (44%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Cernak11:54
xG 0.81–0.37 (69%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Cernak – Sergachev2:21
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Sergachev – Perbix10:43
xG 0.41–0.40 (51%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- Gagner – Stenlund – Jonsson-Fjallby5:01
xG 0.20–0.23 (46%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Lowry – Barron – Kuhlman6:14
xG 0.02–0.08 (16%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Ehlers – Connor – Dubois9:41
xG 0.29–0.55 (34%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Perfetti6:48
xG 0.27–0.60 (31%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Morrissey10:14
xG 0.61–0.35 (63%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
- Schmidt – Morrissey3:24
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Dillon – DeMelo2:39
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).