Sun, Jan 8, 2023·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Toronto Maple Leafs 6, Philadelphia Flyers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 212 | 312 | 111 | 635 |
| PHI | 111 | 114 | 011 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:51TORCalle JarnkrokAssists: Mitch Marner, Conor Timmins · Snap, 0.17 xG1–0
- P1 17:44TORZachary Aston-ReeseAssists: Pontus Holmberg · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–0
- P1 18:00PHITravis KonecnyUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 7:01TORConor TimminsGWGAssists: Mitch Marner, John Tavares · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–1
- P2 8:50PHINicolas DeslauriersAssists: Patrick Brown · Backhand, 0.11 xG3–2
- P2 10:07TORTimothy LiljegrenSHAssists: Calle Jarnkrok · Snap, 0.04 xG4–2
- P2 12:22TORJohn TavaresAssists: Calle Jarnkrok · Snap, 0.19 xG5–2
- P3 13:13TORAuston MatthewsPPAssists: John Tavares, Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.09 xG6–2
Penalties (8)
- P2 1:32TORAuston Matthews: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:15TORMark Giordano: Interference2 min
- P2 14:22TORPontus Holmberg: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:38PHIWade Allison: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:32TORMichael Bunting: High sticking2 min
- P3 6:33TORWayne Simmonds: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:33PHINicolas Deslauriers: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:51PHIRasmus Ristolainen: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kampf won the faceoff against Laughton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKerfoot – Engvall – Kampf11:01
xG 0.37–0.21 (64%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Nylander – Bunting – Matthews7:23
xG 0.47–0.31 (60%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Tavares – Jarnkrok – Marner5:47
xG 0.53–0.44 (55%)attempts 8–8goals 3–1
- Tavares – Nylander – Matthews2:09
xG 0.23–0.19 (54%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLiljegren – Sandin11:07
xG 0.63–0.46 (58%)attempts 13–11goals 0–2
- Holl – Rielly11:48
xG 0.48–0.52 (48%)attempts 10–14goals 1–0
- Giordano – Timmins12:21
xG 0.46–0.62 (42%)attempts 12–14goals 2–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- Deslauriers – Brown – MacEwen9:04
xG 0.54–0.49 (52%)attempts 13–6goals 1–1
- van Riemsdyk – Tippett – Frost8:51
xG 0.38–0.34 (53%)attempts 10–8goals 0–2
- Hayes – Laughton – Allison8:30
xG 0.69–0.77 (48%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
- Konecny – Cates – Farabee7:46
xG 0.37–0.54 (41%)attempts 8–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeeler – Ristolainen6:50
xG 0.48–0.09 (84%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Ristolainen – Sanheim4:29
xG 0.20–0.03 (88%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Seeler – York3:45
xG 0.22–0.17 (56%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).