Sat, Jan 14, 2023·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, St. Louis Blues 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 29 | 213 | 08 | 430 |
| STL | 17 | 111 | 07 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:39STLTyler PitlickAssists: Alexey Toropchenko · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 12:22TBLBrayden PointAssists: Nick Perbix · Snap, 0.18 xG1–1
- P1 16:43TBLBrayden PointPPAssists: Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 12:44TBLNick PerbixGWGAssists: Mikhail Sergachev, Brayden Point · Slap, 0.02 xG3–1
- P2 13:55STLPavel BuchnevichAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Robert Thomas · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–2
- P2 18:22TBLAlex KillornAssists: Brandon Hagel · Snap, 0.25 xG4–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 13:34TBLErik Cernak: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:15STLIvan Barbashev: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 4:33STLNiko Mikkola: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:14TBLBrandon Hagel: Holding2 min
- P3 3:24TBLAlex Killorn: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Paul won the faceoff against Acciari
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Kucherov – Point5:49
xG 0.46–0.12 (80%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Point – Hagel4:54
xG 0.35–0.05 (87%)attempts 9–3goals 2–0
- Killorn – Cirelli – Hagel6:08
xG 0.36–0.23 (61%)attempts 6–5goals 1–1
- Killorn – Stamkos – Cirelli7:29
xG 0.64–0.53 (55%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Cernak14:31
xG 0.60–0.12 (83%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Bogosian – Hedman9:10
xG 0.76–0.32 (70%)attempts 15–8goals 1–1
- Hedman – Sergachev6:50
xG 0.66–0.31 (68%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Saad – Barbashev10:24
xG 0.71–0.44 (62%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
- Pitlick – Toropchenko – Alexandrov6:49
xG 0.23–0.14 (63%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Leivo – Acciari – Neighbours5:00
xG 0.16–0.23 (41%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
- Buchnevich – Kyrou – Thomas10:15
xG 0.22–0.41 (35%)attempts 6–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestParayko – Mikkola10:50
xG 0.34–0.25 (57%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Rosen – Tucker10:44
xG 0.39–0.43 (48%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Faulk – Tucker2:20
xG 0.05–0.14 (25%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).