Mon, Jan 16, 2023·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Ottawa Senators 1, St. Louis Blues 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 011 | 19 | 013 | 133 |
| STL | 28 | 04 | 08 | 220 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:30STLJake NeighboursAssists: Calle Rosen, Josh Leivo · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 15:06STLNoel AcciariGWGUnassisted · Poke, 0.13 xG0–2
- P2 13:52OTTTim StützleAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Drake Batherson · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 16:50STLNiko Mikkola: Slashing2 min
- P2 1:47OTTParker Kelly: Fighting5 min
- P2 1:47STLJake Neighbours: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:44OTTShane Pinto: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:40OTTMark Kastelic: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thomas won the faceoff against Stützle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – DeBrincat – Pinto13:11
xG 0.87–0.23 (79%)attempts 17–4goals 0–1
- Batherson – Tkachuk – Stützle13:50
xG 0.71–0.55 (56%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Brassard – Watson – Kastelic8:05
xG 0.12–0.09 (57%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Gambrell – Kelly – Lucchini5:10
xG 0.05–0.20 (21%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Sanderson13:34
xG 0.72–0.33 (69%)attempts 16–14goals 0–1
- Holden – Brannstrom11:44
xG 0.41–0.22 (65%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Chabot – Bernard-Docker19:55
xG 0.66–0.82 (45%)attempts 12–21goals 1–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSaad – Kyrou – Thomas5:08
xG 0.39–0.03 (93%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Leivo – Acciari – Neighbours7:32
xG 0.27–0.11 (71%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
- Pitlick – Walker – Toropchenko3:17
xG 0.12–0.03 (79%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Pitlick – Acciari – Toropchenko4:04
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLeddy – Parayko18:24
xG 0.72–0.54 (57%)attempts 18–13goals 1–0
- Rosen – Tucker12:58
xG 0.41–0.55 (43%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Faulk – Mikkola14:41
xG 0.27–0.79 (26%)attempts 8–18goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).