Sat, Jan 21, 2023·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Anaheim Ducks 3, Buffalo Sabres 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 09 | 319 | 09 | 337 |
| BUF | 211 | 117 | 311 | 639 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:53BUFDylan CozensAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Ilya Lyubushkin · Snap, 0.20 xG0–1
- P1 17:39BUFJeff SkinnerPPAssists: Alex Tuch, Tage Thompson · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–2
- P2 4:47ANATrevor ZegrasAssists: Ryan Strome, Maxime Comtois · Snap, 0.19 xG1–2
- P2 8:14ANATrevor ZegrasAssists: Nathan Beaulieu · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 10:49BUFPeyton KrebsAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Kyle Okposo · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–3
- P2 15:29ANASimon BenoitAssists: Trevor Zegras, Adam Henrique · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–3
- P3 2:12BUFVictor OlofssonGWGAssists: Ilya Lyubushkin · Slap, 0.23 xG3–4
- P3 8:07BUFVictor OlofssonAssists: Tyson Jost, Owen Power · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–5
- P3 13:40BUFPeyton KrebsAssists: Alex Tuch, Ilya Lyubushkin · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–6
Penalties (5)
- P1 7:40BUFRasmus Dahlin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 16:20ANAMason McTavish: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 18:50ANAKevin Shattenkirk: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:38ANARyan Strome: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:38BUFPeyton Krebs: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lundeström won the faceoff against Krebs
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestStrome – Comtois – Zegras8:20
xG 0.95–0.40 (70%)attempts 13–9goals 3–2
- Henrique – Terry – McTavish7:50
xG 0.47–0.22 (68%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Silfverberg – Vatrano – Lundeström6:07
xG 0.18–0.13 (59%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Carrick – Megna – Jones5:29
xG 0.05–0.03 (61%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKulikov – Fowler6:30
xG 0.51–0.08 (86%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Klingberg – Benoit5:29
xG 0.44–0.27 (62%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Kulikov – Benoit9:56
xG 0.24–0.28 (47%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOlofsson – Jost – Mittelstadt12:05
xG 0.71–0.53 (57%)attempts 11–11goals 2–1
- Cozens – Quinn – Peterka11:37
xG 0.51–0.36 (58%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Skinner – Tuch – Thompson8:46
xG 0.22–0.32 (41%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
- Okposo – Girgensons – Krebs7:35
xG 0.28–0.49 (37%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBryson – Lyubushkin12:36
xG 0.65–0.36 (64%)attempts 16–17goals 1–0
- Jokiharju – Power17:49
xG 0.30–0.54 (36%)attempts 9–15goals 1–1
- Samuelsson – Dahlin16:44
xG 0.60–1.55 (28%)attempts 17–20goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).