Tue, Jan 24, 2023·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Minnesota Wild 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 08 | 212 | 015 | 235 |
| TBL | 011 | 210 | 218 | 439 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:43MINJoel Eriksson EkSHAssists: Jake Middleton · Backhand, 0.22 xG1–0
- P2 9:44TBLCorey PerryAssists: Ross Colton, Mikhail Sergachev · Slap, 0.19 xG1–1
- P2 11:42MINKirill KaprizovPPAssists: Joel Eriksson Ek, Matt Boldy · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–1
- P2 18:05TBLCorey PerryPPAssists: Ross Colton, Alex Killorn · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–2
- P3 14:22TBLSteven StamkosGWGAssists: Mikhail Sergachev, Nikita Kucherov · Deflected, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 19:43TBLNikita KucherovENAssists: Brandon Hagel · Wrist, 0.54 xG2–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 10:27TBLNick Paul: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:27MINJake Middleton: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:58TBLSteven Stamkos: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:17MINJoel Eriksson Ek: Holding2 min
- P1 19:48TBLAnthony Cirelli: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:00MINJonas Brodin: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:39MINRyan Hartman: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 10:57TBLMikhail Sergachev: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 10:57TBLBrandon Hagel: Abusive language10 min
- P2 12:52TBLVictor Hedman: Interference2 min
- P2 16:12MINFrederick Gaudreau: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 15:07MINRyan Hartman: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Paul won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestZuccarello – Kaprizov – Steel8:56
xG 0.95–0.38 (72%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Reaves – Duhaime – Dewar5:25
xG 0.43–0.07 (85%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Hartman – Gaudreau – Boldy7:45
xG 0.46–0.28 (62%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Foligno – Greenway – Eriksson Ek8:23
xG 0.32–0.25 (56%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSpurgeon – Middleton12:38
xG 1.00–0.23 (81%)attempts 18–7goals 0–1
- Brodin – Dumba17:13
xG 1.24–0.94 (57%)attempts 23–18goals 0–1
- Merrill – Addison7:39
xG 0.14–0.22 (38%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- Maroon – Paul – Colton6:43
xG 0.24–0.23 (51%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Perry – Namestnikov – Bellemare5:44
xG 0.10–0.09 (52%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Killorn – Cirelli – Hagel8:03
xG 0.50–0.71 (41%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Kucherov – Point11:56
xG 0.55–1.21 (31%)attempts 11–18goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Perbix2:15
xG 0.17–0.02 (91%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Bogosian – Hedman9:34
xG 0.24–0.24 (50%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Hedman – Sergachev3:12
xG 0.25–0.26 (49%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).