Thu, Jan 26, 2023·Mullett Arena, Tempe
St. Louis Blues 0, Arizona Coyotes 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 012 | 015 | 06 | 033 |
| ARI | 010 | 29 | 37 | 526 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 10:55ARINick SchmaltzGWGAssists: Lawson Crouse, Troy Stecher · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 13:56ARINick SchmaltzUnassisted · Snap, 0.22 xG0–2
- P3 0:13ARINick SchmaltzUnassisted · Other, 1.00 xG0–3
- P3 5:02ARITravis BoydAssists: Christian Fischer, Nick Ritchie · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–4
- P3 7:16ARIBarrett HaytonPPAssists: Nick Ritchie, Nick Schmaltz · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:35STLRobert Thomas: Hooking2 min
- P1 9:51ARIDylan Guenther: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:39ARIBarrett Hayton: Holding2 min
- P3 6:23STLJosh Leivo: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 6:23ARIJ.J. Moser: Fighting5 min
- P3 6:23STLJosh Leivo: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:21ARIJoshua Brown: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bjugstad won the faceoff against Schenn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestPitlick – Acciari – Toropchenko7:11
xG 0.21–0.09 (70%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Leivo – Brown – Toropchenko2:10
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Saad – Barbashev – Brown2:32
xG 0.17–0.15 (53%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
- Leivo – Brown – Neighbours3:26
xG 0.17–0.18 (50%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLeddy – Faulk2:21
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Krug – Parayko2:33
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Parayko – Mikkola2:00
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestSchmaltz – Keller – Hayton12:06
xG 1.89–0.30 (86%)attempts 17–9goals 2–0
- Boyd – Ritchie – Fischer10:18
xG 0.70–0.22 (76%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Kassian – McBain – Maccelli10:02
xG 0.36–0.11 (77%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Bjugstad – Crouse – Guenther10:23
xG 0.16–0.59 (22%)attempts 6–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChychrun – Välimäki15:53
xG 2.43–0.42 (85%)attempts 19–11goals 3–0
- Nemeth – Moser13:35
xG 0.29–0.49 (38%)attempts 11–17goals 0–0
- Brown – Stecher12:25
xG 0.17–0.45 (27%)attempts 5–15goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).