Fri, Jan 27, 2023·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Calgary Flames 5, Seattle Kraken 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 316 | 013 | 29 | 538 |
| SEA | 16 | 08 | 116 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:20SEAJohn HaydenAssists: Will Borgen, Daniel Sprong · Tip-in, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 7:16CGYElias LindholmAssists: Tyler Toffoli, Dillon Dube · Poke, 0.12 xG1–1
- P1 13:28CGYTyler ToffoliAssists: Blake Coleman, Elias Lindholm · Snap, 0.21 xG2–1
- P1 19:55CGYNikita ZadorovGWGAssists: Elias Lindholm, MacKenzie Weegar · Snap, 0.12 xG3–1
- P3 10:36SEAEeli TolvanenAssists: Oliver Bjorkstrand, Adam Larsson · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–2
- P3 11:40CGYNoah HanifinAssists: Mikael Backlund, Blake Coleman · Snap, 0.11 xG4–2
- P3 18:40CGYBlake ColemanENAssists: Andrew Mangiapane, Mikael Backlund · Wrist, 0.71 xG5–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 10:54SEAEeli Tolvanen: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 12:23SEAWill Borgen: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:23CGYAndrew Mangiapane: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:59CGYJonathan Huberdeau: Slashing2 min
- P2 7:46SEADaniel Sprong: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 12:12CGYTyler Toffoli: Holding2 min
- P2 15:05CGYJonathan Huberdeau: Interference2 min
- P2 19:01CGYNikita Zadorov: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 8:18CGYNikita Zadorov: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Gourde
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Coleman – Mangiapane8:05
xG 0.59–0.28 (67%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Kadri – Huberdeau – Pelletier11:02
xG 0.44–0.18 (71%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Lindholm – Dube8:54
xG 0.36–0.44 (45%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Lewis – Lucic – Ruzicka6:24
xG 0.16–0.39 (29%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHanifin – Andersson14:34
xG 1.11–0.50 (69%)attempts 20–13goals 1–0
- Stone – Gilbert9:58
xG 0.42–0.08 (83%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Weegar – Zadorov15:34
xG 0.55–0.76 (42%)attempts 12–20goals 2–1
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Burakovsky – Geekie3:10
xG 0.30–0.20 (60%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
- Hayden – Sprong – Geekie4:35
xG 0.27–0.23 (54%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Wennberg – McCann – Donato2:18
xG 0.04–0.02 (66%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Gourde – Tanev – Geekie2:05
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Oleksiak – Borgen12:01
xG 0.48–0.58 (45%)attempts 11–12goals 1–1
- Soucy – Fleury8:13
xG 0.29–0.50 (37%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
- Oleksiak – Dunn2:46
xG 0.07–0.41 (15%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).