Wed, Feb 1, 2023·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Boston Bruins 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 013 | 28 | 38 | 529 |
| TOR | 014 | 19 | 112 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:57BOSDerek ForbortSHAssists: Charlie Coyle, Trent Frederic · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 9:25TORMitch MarnerPPAssists: Ilya Samsonov, Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 12:33BOSBrandon CarloAssists: Hampus Lindholm, Charlie Coyle · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P3 2:13BOSA.J. GreerGWGAssists: Jakub Lauko · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–1
- P3 8:38TORCalle JarnkrokAssists: Mark Giordano, Justin Holl · Slap, 0.18 xG3–2
- P3 9:08BOSPavel ZachaAssists: Charlie McAvoy, Matt Grzelcyk · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–2
- P3 12:19BOSPavel ZachaAssists: David Krejci, David Pastrnak · Wrist, 0.15 xG5–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:51TORMichael Bunting: Holding2 min
- P2 5:32BOSConnor Clifton: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:12BOSMatt Grzelcyk: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P3 2:15TORWayne Simmonds: Fighting5 min
- P3 2:15BOSA.J. Greer: Fighting5 min
- P3 8:38TORMichael Bunting: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:38BOSCharlie Coyle: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Smith6:00
xG 0.38–0.17 (69%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak5:27
xG 0.21–0.07 (74%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Foligno – Smith – Coyle3:01
xG 0.15–0.01 (92%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Smith – Coyle – Frederic2:07
xG 0.10–0.01 (91%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLindholm – Carlo14:16
xG 0.72–0.60 (54%)attempts 15–20goals 2–0
- Grzelcyk – McAvoy15:00
xG 0.31–0.54 (36%)attempts 12–14goals 1–0
- Forbort – Clifton11:49
xG 0.41–0.68 (38%)attempts 8–17goals 0–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestEngvall – Anderson – Kampf8:55
xG 0.70–0.11 (86%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – Nylander – Bunting2:16
xG 0.31–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Aston-Reese – Holmberg4:43
xG 0.38–0.19 (67%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Jarnkrok – Kerfoot – Nylander7:21
xG 0.48–0.43 (53%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Holl14:54
xG 0.77–0.38 (67%)attempts 24–8goals 1–0
- Brodie – Rielly16:55
xG 0.84–0.47 (64%)attempts 18–15goals 0–0
- Liljegren – Sandin15:04
xG 0.61–0.96 (39%)attempts 17–20goals 0–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).