Mon, Feb 6, 2023·Mullett Arena, Tempe
Minnesota Wild 2, Arizona Coyotes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 05 | 114 | 116 | 235 |
| ARI | 014 | 17 | 215 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:39MINKirill KaprizovAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Calen Addison · Snap, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 9:26ARIJakob ChychrunPPAssists: Barrett Hayton, Clayton Keller · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P3 1:40MINJonas BrodinAssists: Joel Eriksson Ek, Ryan Hartman · Snap, 0.03 xG2–1
- P3 9:35ARIJakob ChychrunAssists: Matias Maccelli, Juuso Välimäki · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- P3 13:13ARIJack McBainGWGAssists: Christian Fischer, Patrik Nemeth · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 6:03ARIJakob Chychrun: Holding2 min
- P1 9:36MINJoel Eriksson Ek: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:09MINJon Merrill: Slashing2 min
- P1 12:43ARIClayton Keller: High sticking2 min
- P1 18:28MINMatt Boldy: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:57MINRyan Hartman: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 9:40MINCalen Addison: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 9:57MINMats Zuccarello: High sticking2 min
- P3 10:52ARIJakob Chychrun: High sticking2 min
- P3 17:26ARINick Ritchie: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bjugstad won the faceoff against Steel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestZuccarello – Kaprizov – Steel10:46
xG 0.94–0.32 (74%)attempts 17–9goals 1–1
- Foligno – Gaudreau – Boldy8:06
xG 0.58–0.19 (76%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Reaves – Duhaime – Dewar5:16
xG 0.15–0.18 (46%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Hartman – Greenway – Eriksson Ek5:48
xG 0.15–0.36 (30%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSpurgeon – Middleton12:04
xG 0.60–0.44 (58%)attempts 15–10goals 0–1
- Brodin – Dumba14:00
xG 0.75–0.65 (54%)attempts 17–19goals 1–0
- Merrill – Addison10:21
xG 0.85–0.82 (51%)attempts 15–15goals 1–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestSchmaltz – Keller – Hayton8:54
xG 0.63–0.22 (74%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
- Kassian – Dea – McBain6:24
xG 0.48–0.20 (71%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Bjugstad – Crouse – Maccelli9:32
xG 0.59–0.42 (58%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Boyd – Ritchie – Fischer8:27
xG 0.23–0.72 (24%)attempts 7–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChychrun – Välimäki14:08
xG 0.64–0.45 (59%)attempts 17–11goals 1–1
- Nemeth – Stecher2:04
xG 0.28–0.21 (58%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Brown – Stecher8:43
xG 0.41–0.35 (54%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).