Tue, Feb 7, 2023·Amalie Arena, Tampa
San Jose Sharks 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 17 | 17 | 17 | 11 | 422 |
| TBL | 317 | 05 | 015 | 00 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:10TBLRoss ColtonAssists: Zach Bogosian · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 6:28SJSErik KarlssonPPAssists: Timo Meier, Tomas Hertl · Slap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 9:21TBLBrayden PointPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P1 16:44TBLBrayden PointAssists: Mikhail Sergachev, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–3
- P2 16:23SJSTimo MeierPPAssists: Alexander Barabanov, Logan Couture · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–3
- P3 3:08SJSJonah GadjovichAssists: Scott Harrington, Erik Karlsson · Deflected, 0.08 xG3–3
- OT 2:19SJSTimo MeierGWGAssists: Erik Karlsson, Tomas Hertl · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 3:08SJSAlexander Barabanov: Holding2 min
- P1 6:23TBLIan Cole: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 8:46SJSMichael Eyssimont: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 1:44SJSNico Sturm: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:40SJSNico Sturm: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:18TBLZach Bogosian: Interference2 min
- P2 13:12SJSEvgeny Svechnikov: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:18TBLIan Cole: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 19:40TBLBrayden Point: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:40SJSMichael Eyssimont: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:04SJSEvgeny Svechnikov: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Point won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- Bonino – Lindblom – Sturm4:25
xG 0.21–0.18 (54%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
- Hertl – Meier – Gregor10:14
xG 0.92–0.93 (50%)attempts 8–17goals 0–0
- Couture – Eyssimont – Barabanov6:43
xG 0.16–0.22 (41%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
- Svechnikov – Lorentz – Gadjovich5:36
xG 0.04–0.12 (24%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – MacDonald4:17
xG 0.61–0.16 (79%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Ferraro5:13
xG 0.22–0.13 (64%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Harrington10:17
xG 0.51–0.71 (42%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Cirelli – Hagel8:09
xG 0.65–0.16 (81%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- Perry – Namestnikov – Bellemare5:02
xG 0.36–0.07 (83%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Kucherov – Point11:27
xG 0.70–0.43 (62%)attempts 19–7goals 1–0
- Stamkos – Kucherov – Hagel2:19
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Cernak12:34
xG 1.22–0.67 (64%)attempts 19–8goals 0–0
- Sergachev – Perbix11:05
xG 0.75–0.29 (72%)attempts 16–7goals 1–0
- Hedman – Cernak2:01
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).