Tue, Feb 14, 2023·Capital One Arena, Washington
Carolina Hurricanes 3, Washington Capitals 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 15 | 216 | 09 | 330 |
| WSH | 110 | 113 | 013 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:00CARBrent BurnsAssists: Jordan Staal, Jordan Martinook · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 19:02WSHT.J. OshieAssists: Joe Snively, Dmitry Orlov · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 2:33CARPaul StastnyAssists: Calvin de Haan, Stefan Noesen · Deflected, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 6:23WSHJoe SnivelyAssists: Trevor van Riemsdyk · Snap, 0.13 xG2–2
- P2 11:38CARStefan NoesenPPGWGAssists: Brady Skjei, Teuvo Teravainen · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 8:38CARAndrei Svechnikov: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:07WSHConor Sheary: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 14:16CARAndrei Svechnikov: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:54CARMartin Necas: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestTeravainen – Aho – Jarvis12:37
xG 1.07–0.29 (79%)attempts 16–7goals 0–1
- Staal – Fast – Martinook11:28
xG 0.63–0.58 (52%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Necas – Kotkaniemi – Svechnikov14:32
xG 0.66–0.98 (40%)attempts 17–17goals 0–1
- Stastny – Stepan – Noesen6:45
xG 0.28–1.03 (21%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Slavin17:45
xG 1.57–1.30 (55%)attempts 28–23goals 1–1
- Skjei – Pesce18:15
xG 0.58–0.75 (43%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- de Haan – Chatfield12:38
xG 0.51–0.75 (41%)attempts 11–15goals 1–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOshie – Strome – Snively10:16
xG 1.19–0.47 (72%)attempts 10–13goals 2–1
- Backstrom – Johansson – Milano10:54
xG 0.63–0.59 (52%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Kuznetsov – Mantha – Sheary12:23
xG 0.27–0.48 (36%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Eller – Hathaway – Aube-Kubel8:36
xG 0.59–0.84 (41%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGustafsson – van Riemsdyk11:52
xG 1.63–0.55 (75%)attempts 18–13goals 1–0
- Orlov – van Riemsdyk2:19
xG 0.08–0.01 (88%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Fehérváry3:21
xG 0.20–0.27 (42%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).