Sat, Feb 18, 2023·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Buffalo Sabres 4, San Jose Sharks 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 15 | 18 | 218 | 431 |
| SJS | 114 | 113 | 08 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:01BUFDylan CozensUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 16:49SJSEvgeny SvechnikovAssists: Jacob MacDonald, Steven Lorentz · Tip-in, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 6:26BUFOwen PowerAssists: Alex Tuch, Jeff Skinner · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–1
- P2 11:57SJSAlexander BarabanovAssists: Logan Couture, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–2
- P3 9:52BUFJeff SkinnerGWGAssists: Tage Thompson · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–2
- P3 18:59BUFAlex TuchENAssists: Rasmus Dahlin · Wrist, 0.76 xG4–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 18:28BUFRasmus Dahlin: Interference2 min
- P2 16:44SJSErik Karlsson: Holding2 min
- P2 18:55BUFPeyton Krebs: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:55SJSTimo Meier: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:23SJSTimo Meier: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jost won the faceoff against Hertl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Tuch – Thompson10:47
xG 1.15–0.98 (54%)attempts 17–17goals 2–2
- Mittelstadt – Krebs – Quinn12:11
xG 0.47–0.40 (54%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Olofsson – Cozens – Peterka10:50
xG 0.27–0.30 (48%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Okposo – Girgensons – Jost11:18
xG 0.19–0.68 (22%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJokiharju – Dahlin16:39
xG 1.29–0.48 (73%)attempts 23–10goals 1–0
- Jokiharju – Power2:30
xG 0.15–0.07 (68%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
- Lyubushkin – Power7:25
xG 0.16–0.16 (50%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestBonino – Gregor – Sturm9:49
xG 0.76–0.05 (94%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Couture – Eyssimont – Barabanov12:13
xG 0.63–0.59 (51%)attempts 12–10goals 1–1
- Hertl – Labanc – Meier12:11
xG 0.44–0.69 (39%)attempts 12–12goals 0–2
- Lindblom – Svechnikov – Lorentz9:34
xG 0.26–0.67 (28%)attempts 5–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Karlsson – Benning3:32
xG 0.12–0.11 (52%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- MacDonald – Ferraro15:06
xG 0.72–0.76 (49%)attempts 13–14goals 1–2
- Karlsson – Harrington13:39
xG 0.81–0.89 (48%)attempts 16–16goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).