Sun, Feb 19, 2023·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
St. Louis Blues 2, Ottawa Senators 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 012 | 011 | 29 | 232 |
| OTT | 110 | 417 | 27 | 734 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:57OTTShane PintoAssists: Drake Batherson, Alex DeBrincat · Snap, 0.17 xG0–1
- P2 1:51OTTAlex DeBrincatPPAssists: Tim Stützle, Brady Tkachuk · Snap, 0.13 xG0–2
- P2 7:23OTTTim StützleGWGAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Claude Giroux · Backhand, 0.09 xG0–3
- P2 10:07OTTBrady TkachukAssists: Claude Giroux · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–4
- P2 12:35OTTDrake BathersonAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Shane Pinto · Snap, 0.15 xG0–5
- P3 7:51OTTTim StützleAssists: Artem Zub, Erik Brannstrom · Snap, 0.20 xG0–6
- P3 9:16STLColton ParaykoUnassisted · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–6
- P3 11:06STLTyler PitlickAssists: Justin Faulk · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–6
- P3 18:16OTTRidly GreigAssists: Derick Brassard, Thomas Chabot · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–7
Penalties (15)
- P1 2:56OTTParker Kelly: Hooking2 min
- P1 6:29STLJordan Kyrou: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 11:02STLTyler Pitlick: Elbowing2 min
- P1 19:12OTTTim Stützle: Charging2 min
- P2 0:35STLJordan Kyrou: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 11:29STLTyler Tucker: Instigator2 min
- P2 11:29STLTyler Tucker: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:29STLTyler Tucker: Misconduct10 min
- P2 11:29OTTAustin Watson: Boarding2 min
- P2 11:29OTTAustin Watson: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:15STLCalle Rosen: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:53OTTBrady Tkachuk: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:39OTTArtem Zub: Cross checking2 min
- P3 14:13OTTClaude Giroux: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:54OTTDerick Brassard: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stützle won the faceoff against Thomas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestPitlick – Toropchenko – Alexandrov4:04
xG 0.29–0.09 (76%)attempts 6–1goals 0–1
- Pitlick – Walker – Toropchenko2:12
xG 0.14–0.09 (61%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Walker – Highmore – Brown2:03
xG 0.03–0.00 (93%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Schenn – Kyrou – Thomas2:05
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRosen – Tucker7:56
xG 0.32–0.09 (77%)attempts 10–1goals 0–1
- Leddy – Krug2:22
xG 0.06–0.00 (96%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Leddy – Faulk3:06
xG 0.15–0.10 (59%)attempts 4–1goals 1–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestBrassard – Kelly – Greig4:55
xG 0.24–0.06 (80%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- DeBrincat – Batherson – Pinto8:47
xG 0.44–0.28 (61%)attempts 6–8goals 2–1
- Watson – Joseph – Gambrell5:15
xG 0.15–0.10 (60%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Giroux – Tkachuk – Stützle9:20
xG 0.38–0.38 (50%)attempts 4–8goals 3–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrannstrom – Zub9:40
xG 0.64–0.21 (75%)attempts 9–8goals 2–0
- Chabot – Zub3:52
xG 0.10–0.05 (66%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
- Chabot – Zaitsev11:17
xG 0.22–0.40 (36%)attempts 6–13goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).