Sat, Feb 25, 2023·Centre Bell, Montreal
Ottawa Senators 5, Montréal Canadiens 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 15 | 17 | 310 | 522 |
| MTL | 09 | 214 | 09 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:12OTTDerick BrassardAssists: Nick Holden, Mark Kastelic · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 4:29MTLMike MathesonAssists: Justin Barron · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 8:46MTLNick SuzukiAssists: Johnathan Kovacevic · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–2
- P2 13:51OTTShane PintoAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Claude Giroux · Deflected, 0.12 xG2–2
- P3 4:31OTTAustin WatsonGWGAssists: Travis Hamonic, Derick Brassard · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–2
- P3 5:18OTTDrake BathersonAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Mads Sogaard · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–2
- P3 11:57OTTJulien GauthierAssists: Nick Holden · Wrist, 0.04 xG5–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 10:57OTTAustin Watson: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:16OTTTim Stützle: Holding2 min
- P2 3:31OTTAustin Watson: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:31MTLMichael Pezzetta: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:26MTLRafael Harvey-Pinard: Interference2 min
- P2 14:55OTTMark Kastelic: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Suzuki won the faceoff against Stützle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – DeBrincat – Pinto10:27
xG 0.72–0.17 (81%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Joseph – Gauthier – Gambrell8:38
xG 0.64–0.17 (79%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Watson – Joseph – Kastelic2:21
xG 0.05–0.04 (56%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Batherson – Tkachuk – Stützle15:10
xG 0.84–1.02 (45%)attempts 18–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – Brannstrom10:46
xG 0.69–0.14 (83%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Chabot – Zub21:26
xG 0.97–0.83 (54%)attempts 21–21goals 1–1
- Hamonic – Sanderson15:12
xG 0.68–1.01 (40%)attempts 16–17goals 2–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestDadonov – Dvorak – Pitlick11:23
xG 0.52–0.22 (70%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Anderson – Suzuki – Harvey-Pinard15:16
xG 1.01–1.00 (50%)attempts 12–18goals 2–1
- Belzile – Tierney – Pezzetta7:21
xG 0.19–0.23 (45%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
- Hoffman – Drouin – Ylonen7:54
xG 0.21–0.73 (22%)attempts 10–7goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- Harris – Barron2:00
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Matheson – Barron11:02
xG 0.26–0.46 (36%)attempts 9–13goals 1–3
- Savard – Matheson3:59
xG 0.12–0.33 (27%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).