Sun, Feb 26, 2023·Mullett Arena, Tempe
Nashville Predators 6, Arizona Coyotes 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 212 | 18 | 314 | 634 |
| ARI | 110 | 19 | 08 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:55ARIShayne GostisbehereSHAssists: Nick Schmaltz · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 9:02NSHYakov TreninAssists: Philip Tomasino, Colton Sissons · Deflected, 0.14 xG1–1
- P1 13:48NSHMatt DucheneAssists: Cody Glass, Alexandre Carrier · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 2:39NSHRoman JosiGWGAssists: Tommy Novak, Yakov Trenin · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–1
- P2 7:27ARINick SchmaltzAssists: Clayton Keller, Barrett Hayton · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–2
- P3 3:28NSHTommy NovakAssists: Mikael Granlund, Matt Duchene · Backhand, 0.20 xG4–2
- P3 6:02NSHRoman JosiPPAssists: Tommy Novak, Matt Duchene · Slap, 0.05 xG5–2
- P3 18:17NSHCody GlassPPAssists: Mikael Granlund, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.03 xG6–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 5:19ARIPatrik Nemeth: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:03NSHColton Sissons: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:15NSHCole Smith: Holding2 min
- P2 13:09NSHAlexandre Carrier: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:17ARINick Ritchie: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 8:57NSHMattias Ekholm: Cross checking2 min
- P3 15:32NSHPhilip Tomasino: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:23ARIJuuso Välimäki: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 18:17ARILiam O'Brien: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Novak won the faceoff against Bjugstad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- Sanford – Glass – Tomasino4:25
xG 0.05–0.03 (61%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Duchene – Granlund – Glass3:02
xG 0.03–0.02 (58%)attempts 1–2goals 1–0
- Sanford – Sherwood – Tomasino2:40
xG 0.11–0.12 (47%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Sissons – Trenin – Smith5:15
xG 0.16–0.25 (39%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Carrier13:18
xG 1.02–0.18 (85%)attempts 15–5goals 2–0
- Gravel – Lauzon4:49
xG 0.30–0.09 (77%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
- McDonagh – Josi10:50
xG 0.32–0.32 (50%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestSchmaltz – Keller – Hayton12:32
xG 0.97–0.05 (95%)attempts 18–5goals 1–1
- Boyd – Ritchie – Fischer9:27
xG 0.30–0.31 (49%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Bjugstad – Crouse – Maccelli10:13
xG 0.26–0.46 (36%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Kassian – O'Brien – McBain7:14
xG 0.02–0.51 (3%)attempts 4–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestGostisbehere – Välimäki13:28
xG 0.95–0.49 (66%)attempts 19–7goals 1–1
- Nemeth – Moser12:18
xG 0.48–0.49 (50%)attempts 15–12goals 0–1
- Stecher – Soderstrom13:18
xG 0.18–0.72 (20%)attempts 10–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).