Tue, Feb 28, 2023·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Columbus Blue Jackets 5, Buffalo Sabres 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 215 | 213 | 18 | 536 |
| BUF | 116 | 011 | 214 | 341 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:53CBJKent JohnsonPPAssists: Nick Blankenburg, Elvis Merzlikins · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 3:11BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Jeff Skinner, Jack Quinn · Snap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P1 13:41CBJEric RobinsonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–1
- P2 11:53CBJEric RobinsonAssists: Sean Kuraly, Patrik Laine · Snap, 0.19 xG3–1
- P2 19:42CBJBoone JennerGWGAssists: Nick Blankenburg, Andrew Peeke · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–1
- P3 5:02BUFJack QuinnAssists: Mattias Samuelsson · Snap, 0.11 xG4–2
- P3 9:46BUFJJ PeterkaPPAssists: Owen Power, Peyton Krebs · Slap, 0.09 xG4–3
- P3 19:25CBJEric RobinsonENAssists: Boone Jenner · Snap, 0.71 xG5–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 1:24BUFDylan Cozens: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 0:09CBJJack Roslovic: Holding2 min
- P3 8:20CBJKirill Marchenko: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 15:02CBJSean Kuraly: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against Jenner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestKuraly – Olivier – Robinson8:28
xG 1.16–0.60 (66%)attempts 11–12goals 2–1
- Roslovic – Laine – Johnson13:25
xG 0.78–0.47 (62%)attempts 18–10goals 0–0
- Kuraly – Jenner – Robinson2:10
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Bemstrom – Foudy – Sillinger9:32
xG 0.61–0.77 (44%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudbranson – Berni13:20
xG 1.21–0.36 (77%)attempts 14–10goals 0–1
- Peeke – Blankenburg14:01
xG 0.63–0.54 (54%)attempts 13–12goals 1–1
- Bayreuther – Boqvist9:58
xG 0.84–0.82 (50%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Thompson – Quinn12:50
xG 0.92–0.76 (55%)attempts 16–13goals 2–2
- Okposo – Girgensons – Jost9:35
xG 0.33–0.38 (46%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Hinostroza – Mittelstadt – Cozens10:42
xG 0.58–0.99 (37%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Olofsson – Krebs – Peterka9:00
xG 0.29–0.79 (27%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBryson – Lyubushkin11:46
xG 0.57–0.40 (59%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Samuelsson – Power6:35
xG 0.36–0.26 (58%)attempts 7–8goals 1–1
- Clague – Jokiharju3:17
xG 0.35–0.40 (47%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).