Fri, Mar 3, 2023·Mullett Arena, Tempe
Carolina Hurricanes 6, Arizona Coyotes 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 27 | 314 | 121 | 642 |
| ARI | 07 | 19 | 02 | 118 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:20CARPaul StastnyAssists: Brent Burns, Jaccob Slavin · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 8:57CARSebastian AhoGWGAssists: Andrei Svechnikov, Brady Skjei · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–0
- P2 5:43CARJaccob SlavinAssists: Brent Burns, Seth Jarvis · Slap, 0.01 xG3–0
- P2 10:41ARILawson CrouseAssists: J.J. Moser, Victor Soderstrom · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–1
- P2 12:26CARShayne GostisbeherePPAssists: Martin Necas, Andrei Svechnikov · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–1
- P2 14:37CARSebastian AhoPPAssists: Brent Burns, Martin Necas · Wrist, 0.06 xG5–1
- P3 1:47CARMartin NecasPPAssists: Brent Burns, Sebastian Aho · Slap, 0.12 xG6–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 16:33CARJaccob Slavin: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:09CARBrett Pesce: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:36CARBrett Pesce: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:14ARIPatrik Nemeth: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 13:45ARIJ.J. Moser: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 1:19ARIBarrett Hayton: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 6:48ARILiam O'Brien: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hayton won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Fast – Martinook10:31
xG 0.94–0.21 (82%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Teravainen – Necas – Kotkaniemi8:10
xG 0.80–0.22 (78%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Stastny – Stepan – Noesen9:39
xG 0.61–0.08 (89%)attempts 15–4goals 1–0
- Aho – Svechnikov – Jarvis9:30
xG 0.99–0.56 (64%)attempts 18–10goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Slavin14:35
xG 1.64–0.36 (82%)attempts 25–11goals 2–0
- Gostisbehere – Chatfield12:48
xG 0.74–0.08 (90%)attempts 17–5goals 0–0
- Skjei – Pesce16:31
xG 0.88–0.70 (56%)attempts 16–12goals 1–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- Schmaltz – Keller – Hayton11:30
xG 0.74–0.86 (46%)attempts 15–12goals 0–1
- Kassian – O'Brien – Dauphin11:13
xG 0.02–0.48 (4%)attempts 2–10goals 0–0
- Crouse – McBain – Maccelli11:50
xG 0.36–0.98 (27%)attempts 7–16goals 1–1
- Boyd – Dea – Kelemen7:58
xG 0.01–0.75 (1%)attempts 2–18goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKesselring – Kolyachonok4:18
xG 0.17–0.04 (80%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Välimäki – Soderstrom5:10
xG 0.39–0.37 (51%)attempts 7–5goals 0–2
- Välimäki – Kesselring9:47
xG 0.18–0.56 (25%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).