Sun, Mar 5, 2023·Mullett Arena, Tempe
New Jersey Devils 5, Arizona Coyotes 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 212 | 215 | 012 | 11 | 540 |
| ARI | 115 | 15 | 28 | 01 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:09NJDTimo MeierAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Jack Hughes · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 10:19ARIMatias MaccelliAssists: Jack McBain, Victor Soderstrom · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P1 18:18NJDJesper BoqvistAssists: Damon Severson, Erik Haula · Snap, 0.14 xG2–1
- P2 4:44NJDDamon SeversonPPAssists: Dawson Mercer, Erik Haula · Snap, 0.04 xG3–1
- P2 16:23ARIZack KassianAssists: Liam O'Brien, Connor Mackey · Slap, 0.14 xG3–2
- P2 19:19NJDJesper BoqvistAssists: Ondrej Palat · Snap, 0.13 xG4–2
- P3 1:29ARINick SchmaltzAssists: Clayton Keller, Juuso Välimäki · Slap, 0.08 xG4–3
- P3 18:00ARIJack McBainAssists: Juuso Välimäki, Lawson Crouse · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–4
- OT 0:23NJDNico HischierGWGAssists: Dougie Hamilton · Wrist, 0.07 xG5–4
Penalties (3)
- P1 6:09NJDTomas Tatar: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:52ARIZack Kassian: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 8:19NJDTimo Meier: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hayton won the faceoff against Hischier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestHaula – Palat – Boqvist9:57
xG 0.84–0.10 (89%)attempts 17–4goals 2–0
- Tatar – Hischier – Mercer13:41
xG 0.79–0.45 (64%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- Wood – Bastian – McLeod7:58
xG 0.36–0.35 (51%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
- Meier – Bratt – Hughes13:29
xG 0.57–0.74 (43%)attempts 13–14goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestHamilton – Siegenthaler16:26
xG 1.13–0.65 (63%)attempts 24–14goals 1–2
- Severson – Graves2:11
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Graves – Marino13:57
xG 0.73–0.84 (47%)attempts 11–12goals 0–2
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestCrouse – McBain – Maccelli13:01
xG 0.89–0.27 (76%)attempts 11–10goals 2–0
- O'Brien – Dauphin – Fischer2:40
xG 0.44–0.01 (97%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Boyd – Dea – Fischer9:17
xG 0.23–0.51 (31%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
- Kassian – O'Brien – Dauphin5:40
xG 0.35–0.77 (31%)attempts 7–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSoderstrom – Mackey10:54
xG 1.27–0.85 (60%)attempts 18–12goals 2–0
- Nemeth – Moser19:28
xG 0.30–0.77 (28%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Brown – Välimäki16:37
xG 0.39–0.88 (30%)attempts 11–28goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).