Sun, Mar 5, 2023·Ball Arena, Denver
Seattle Kraken 3, Colorado Avalanche 2 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 07 | 111 | 116 | 11 | 335 |
| COL | 16 | 110 | 07 | 00 | 223 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:19COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Artturi Lehkonen, Valeri Nichushkin · Snap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 9:52SEAAlexander WennbergAssists: Will Borgen, Jaden Schwartz · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 11:45COLDenis MalginAssists: Cale Makar, Evan Rodrigues · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
- P3 17:30SEABrandon TanevAssists: Jaden Schwartz · Snap, 0.17 xG2–2
- OT 1:24SEAYanni GourdeGWGAssists: Vince Dunn, Matty Beniers · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 15:12SEAJordan Eberle: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 2:26COLCale Makar: Cross checking2 min
- P2 13:13COLValeri Nichushkin: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 0:00COLJack Johnson: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:00COLMikko Rantanen: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 2:49SEABrandon Tanev: High sticking2 min
- P3 5:54COLMatt Nieto: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Wennberg won the faceoff against Compher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- Donato – Tanev – Geekie5:34
xG 0.11–0.08 (59%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Eberle – McCann – Beniers10:27
xG 0.21–0.18 (54%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Gourde – Tolvanen – Froden7:16
xG 0.35–0.33 (51%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
- Schwartz – Bjorkstrand – Wennberg8:31
xG 0.20–0.62 (25%)attempts 4–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Soucy11:44
xG 0.60–0.48 (56%)attempts 16–12goals 1–0
- Oleksiak – Borgen12:52
xG 0.17–0.12 (60%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Larsson – Dunn16:02
xG 0.68–0.98 (41%)attempts 19–11goals 0–2
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestRodrigues – Malgin – Newhook6:12
xG 0.49–0.00 (99%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Cogliano – Eller – O'Connor7:10
xG 0.33–0.05 (87%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Rantanen4:49
xG 0.07–0.22 (25%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Nichushkin7:00
xG 0.12–0.28 (30%)attempts 2–6goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar12:31
xG 0.63–0.25 (72%)attempts 11–7goals 2–0
- Johnson – Hunt6:53
xG 0.45–0.13 (77%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Toews – Byram2:30
xG 0.03–0.12 (18%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).