Mon, Mar 6, 2023·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Nashville Predators 3, Vancouver Canucks 4 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 110 | 012 | 210 | 00 | 0 | 332 |
| VAN | 28 | 09 | 18 | 04 | 1 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:28VANElias PetterssonAssists: Andrei Kuzmenko, Anthony Beauvillier · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 4:55NSHColton SissonsAssists: Cole Smith, Jeremy Lauzon · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–1
- P1 10:56VANVasily PodkolzinAssists: Kyle Burroughs, Christian Wolanin · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–2
- P3 5:43VANDakota JoshuaAssists: Nils Aman, Quinn Hughes · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–3
- P3 8:31NSHLuke EvangelistaAssists: Kiefer Sherwood, Jeremy Lauzon · Backhand, 0.15 xG2–3
- P3 16:55NSHLuke EvangelistaAssists: Tyson Barrie · Tip-in, 0.16 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. VAN Andrei Kuzmenko stopped
- 2. NSH Matt Duchene stopped
- 3. VAN J.T. Miller stopped
- 4. NSH Luke Evangelista stopped
- 5. VAN Elias Pettersson scored
- 6. NSH Tommy Novak stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:16VANJ.T. Miller: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 18:04NSHCal Foote: Cross checking2 min
- P2 7:17VANJ.T. Miller: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:17NSHCole Smith: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:51NSHTyson Barrie: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:16NSHLuke Evangelista: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Aman won the faceoff against Sissons
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Novak – Evangelista9:19
xG 0.68–0.19 (78%)attempts 17–3goals 0–0
- Jankowski – McCarron – Asplund3:26
xG 0.70–0.22 (76%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Novak – Sherwood – Evangelista3:13
xG 0.24–0.09 (74%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
- Sissons – Trenin – Smith9:29
xG 0.55–0.53 (51%)attempts 10–10goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Barrie14:58
xG 1.39–0.39 (78%)attempts 18–5goals 0–1
- Josi – Barrie3:38
xG 0.33–0.03 (92%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Josi – Lauzon3:00
xG 0.03–0.01 (68%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- Dries – Kravtsov – Podkolzin6:16
xG 0.29–0.36 (45%)attempts 5–6goals 1–1
- Miller – Di Giuseppe – Boeser9:18
xG 0.25–0.35 (41%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
- Beauvillier – Pettersson – Kuzmenko10:30
xG 0.41–0.62 (40%)attempts 8–13goals 1–2
- Joshua – Garland – Aman10:43
xG 0.53–1.10 (33%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Juulsen – Hughes12:00
xG 0.37–0.33 (53%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Myers – Hughes4:16
xG 0.04–0.03 (56%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Myers – Brisebois12:07
xG 0.47–0.71 (39%)attempts 9–21goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).