Tue, Mar 7, 2023·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Philadelphia Flyers 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 17 | 116 | 012 | 235 |
| TBL | 115 | 311 | 113 | 539 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:52PHIMorgan FrostAssists: Joel Farabee, Owen Tippett · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 7:38TBLAlex KillornPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Mikhail Sergachev · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 0:34TBLNikita KucherovPPAssists: Mikhail Sergachev, Alex Killorn · Slap, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 8:46TBLRoss ColtonGWGAssists: Tanner Jeannot, Nick Paul · Poke, 0.11 xG1–3
- P2 10:49TBLAlex KillornAssists: Anthony Cirelli, Brandon Hagel · Snap, 0.13 xG1–4
- P2 12:40PHIBrendan LemieuxAssists: Cam York, Rasmus Ristolainen · Tip-in, 0.06 xG2–4
- P3 17:38TBLNikita KucherovPPAssists: Brayden Point · Backhand, 0.21 xG2–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:00PHIJoel Farabee: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 14:32PHITravis Sanheim: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:38PHIJoel Farabee: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 14:49TBLSteven Stamkos: Holding2 min
- P2 18:41TBLMikhail Sergachev: High sticking2 min
- P3 5:46PHIJames van Riemsdyk: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:41TBLAlex Killorn: Holding2 min
- P3 17:20PHITony DeAngelo: Spearing5 min · PPG
- P3 17:20PHITony DeAngelo: Game misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Paul won the faceoff against Cates
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Tippett – Frost5:37
xG 0.28–0.13 (68%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Hayes – Allison2:09
xG 0.07–0.04 (63%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Tippett – Frost – Farabee3:27
xG 0.06–0.06 (51%)attempts 1–5goals 1–0
- Laughton – Allison – Cates5:54
xG 0.17–0.19 (48%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBraun – Provorov5:51
xG 0.29–0.13 (69%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Ristolainen – York5:55
xG 0.36–0.28 (56%)attempts 10–5goals 1–2
- Provorov – York6:01
xG 0.08–0.03 (73%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Cirelli – Hagel7:33
xG 0.48–0.16 (75%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Paul – Colton – Jeannot9:42
xG 0.39–0.22 (64%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Perry – Maroon – Eyssimont7:22
xG 0.47–0.42 (53%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Kucherov – Point11:50
xG 0.38–0.43 (47%)attempts 10–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSergachev – Perbix12:36
xG 0.52–0.14 (78%)attempts 19–10goals 0–0
- Cole – Cernak14:11
xG 0.59–0.49 (55%)attempts 12–15goals 2–1
- Bogosian – Sergachev2:36
xG 0.28–0.22 (56%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).