Thu, Mar 9, 2023·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
New York Islanders 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 17 | 06 | 213 | 12 | 428 |
| PIT | 213 | 111 | 010 | 02 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:23NYIAnders LeePPAssists: Bo Horvat, Kyle Palmieri · Wrist, 0.29 xG1–0
- P1 11:07PITJake GuentzelAssists: Marcus Pettersson, Sidney Crosby · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–1
- P1 18:24PITJason ZuckerAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Jeff Petry · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 10:49PITJosh ArchibaldAssists: Brian Dumoulin, Jeff Petry · Deflected, 0.09 xG1–3
- P3 14:31NYIHudson FaschingAssists: Casey Cizikas, Sebastian Aho · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–3
- P3 18:45NYIAnders LeeAssists: Noah Dobson, Brock Nelson · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–3
- OT 2:13NYIBrock NelsonGWGAssists: Ilya Sorokin · Wrist, 0.22 xG4–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:44PITEvgeni Malkin: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 15:29NYIScott Mayfield: Interference2 min
- P2 3:42PITDanton Heinen: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 7:29NYIScott Mayfield: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:48NYIScott Mayfield: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:39PITJan Rutta: Elbowing2 min
- P3 5:19NYIOtto Koivula: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:19PITJosh Archibald: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:47PITDrew O'Connor: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLee – Horvat – Holmstrom2:01
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Bailey – Koivula – Holmstrom2:06
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Martin – Cizikas – Fasching7:50
xG 0.17–0.41 (30%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- Lee – Horvat – Engvall5:49
xG 0.09–0.52 (14%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Pulock – Aho3:04
xG 0.12–0.18 (40%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Aho – Dobson10:23
xG 0.23–0.32 (41%)attempts 9–8goals 1–1
- Mayfield – Romanov3:27
xG 0.15–0.30 (33%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Rakell – Guentzel12:17
xG 0.96–0.32 (75%)attempts 18–12goals 1–0
- Carter – Granlund – O'Connor7:05
xG 0.62–0.19 (76%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
- Malkin – Zucker – Rust7:58
xG 0.35–0.06 (85%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Bonino – Archibald – Heinen4:25
xG 0.09–0.14 (40%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Pettersson14:52
xG 1.47–0.25 (86%)attempts 26–11goals 1–0
- Petry – Dumoulin11:59
xG 0.87–0.33 (72%)attempts 15–13goals 2–1
- Kulikov – Rutta10:01
xG 0.05–0.22 (19%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).