Sat, Mar 11, 2023·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Chicago Blackhawks 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 04 | 010 | 19 | 123 |
| TBL | 07 | 115 | 215 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:21TBLBrayden PointAssists: Victor Hedman, Mikhail Sergachev · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–1
- P3 5:23CHITaylor RaddyshAssists: Cole Guttman, Tyler Johnson · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P3 19:00TBLBrayden PointGWGAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Mikhail Sergachev · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 19:58TBLBrandon HagelENAssists: Alex Killorn · Wrist, 0.64 xG1–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 15:52CHITaylor Raddysh: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:28TBLCorey Perry: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 18:49TBLTanner Jeannot: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:31TBLErik Cernak: Fighting5 min
- P3 16:31CHIJujhar Khaira: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Guttman won the faceoff against Cirelli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestKhaira – Anderson – Katchouk8:37
xG 0.41–0.09 (83%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Dickinson – Philp – Entwistle10:49
xG 0.27–0.50 (35%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
- Johnson – Raddysh – Guttman10:39
xG 0.30–0.62 (33%)attempts 6–13goals 1–1
- Athanasiou – Kurashev – Reichel11:14
xG 0.19–0.61 (24%)attempts 6–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Mitchell – Roos14:13
xG 0.50–0.52 (49%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Jones – Roos3:14
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Jones – Jones19:34
xG 0.79–0.90 (47%)attempts 15–20goals 0–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPaul – Eyssimont – Jeannot6:56
xG 0.70–0.14 (84%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Point – Hagel11:09
xG 1.13–0.65 (63%)attempts 16–9goals 2–1
- Killorn – Cirelli – Colton6:40
xG 0.37–0.22 (63%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Killorn – Cirelli – Hagel3:04
xG 0.03–0.03 (54%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Sergachev5:44
xG 0.95–0.22 (82%)attempts 13–2goals 2–0
- Hedman – Perbix10:34
xG 0.81–0.45 (64%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Cole – Cernak14:41
xG 0.50–0.45 (53%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).