Sun, Mar 12, 2023·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Boston Bruins 3, Detroit Red Wings 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 04 | 116 | 213 | 333 |
| DET | 18 | 311 | 17 | 526 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:22DETAlex ChiassonPPAssists: Dylan Larkin, Lucas Raymond · Wrist, 0.31 xG0–1
- P2 6:34DETMoritz SeiderSHUnassisted · Backhand, 0.15 xG0–2
- P2 10:39DETDylan LarkinPPAssists: Lucas Raymond, Moritz Seider · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–3
- P2 15:08DETAdam ErneGWGAssists: Jonatan Berggren, Jordan Oesterle · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–4
- P2 16:52BOSMatt GrzelcykAssists: David Pastrnak, Pavel Zacha · Snap, 0.08 xG1–4
- P3 3:37BOSJake DeBruskAssists: Connor Clifton · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–4
- P3 6:24BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Pavel Zacha, Matt Grzelcyk · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–4
- P3 19:36DETAndrew CoppENAssists: Pius Suter, Dylan Larkin · Wrist, 0.57 xG3–5
Penalties (12)
- P1 8:18DETMoritz Seider: High sticking2 min
- P1 11:15BOSA.J. Greer: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 19:04BOSTomas Nosek: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:04DETJordan Oesterle: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:04BOSCharlie McAvoy: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:04DETAustin Czarnik: Slashing2 min
- P1 0:00BOSBrad Marchand: Cross checking2 min
- P2 5:20DETJordan Oesterle: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:34BOSTomas Nosek: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 11:36DETDominik Kubalik: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:37DETDominik Kubalik: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:37BOSCharlie Coyle: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nosek won the faceoff against Copp
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestHathaway – Nosek – Greer7:40
xG 0.63–0.31 (67%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Bertuzzi5:55
xG 0.37–0.16 (70%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Krejci – Pastrnak – Zacha5:38
xG 0.25–0.15 (62%)attempts 6–4goals 2–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – DeBrusk4:27
xG 0.08–0.01 (88%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Clifton2:48
xG 0.37–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Grzelcyk – McAvoy14:02
xG 0.72–0.41 (64%)attempts 21–8goals 3–0
- Orlov – Carlo11:07
xG 0.44–0.29 (60%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestPerron – Kubalik – Copp6:47
xG 0.40–0.24 (63%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Chiasson – Erne – Czarnik6:28
xG 0.35–0.29 (55%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Kubalik – Copp – Suter2:35
xG 0.10–0.12 (45%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Veleno – Zadina – Berggren8:31
xG 0.17–0.41 (29%)attempts 5–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHagg – Oesterle11:13
xG 0.63–0.50 (56%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
- Chiarot – Maatta14:23
xG 0.47–0.59 (44%)attempts 11–18goals 0–1
- Walman – Seider14:02
xG 0.24–1.07 (18%)attempts 7–22goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).