Tue, Mar 14, 2023·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Vegas Golden Knights 5, Philadelphia Flyers 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 111 | 213 | 29 | 533 |
| PHI | 09 | 18 | 213 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:34VGKPavel DorofeyevAssists: Reilly Smith · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–0
- P2 1:58VGKIvan BarbashevPPAssists: Shea Theodore, Jonathan Marchessault · Tip-in, 0.27 xG2–0
- P2 8:10PHITravis SanheimUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 11:06VGKTeddy BluegerAssists: Phil Kessel, Paul Cotter · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–1
- P3 3:01VGKJonathan MarchessaultPPGWGAssists: Jack Eichel, Chandler Stephenson · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–1
- P3 8:24PHINick SeelerUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–2
- P3 10:15PHIMorgan FrostAssists: Brendan Lemieux, James van Riemsdyk · Tip-in, 0.12 xG4–3
- P3 18:28VGKIvan BarbashevENAssists: Jonathan Marchessault · Wrist, 0.62 xG5–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:48VGKNicolas Hague: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:37PHIMorgan Frost: Closing hand on puck2 min · PPG
- P2 12:12VGKJonathan Marchessault: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:57PHIScott Laughton: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:41PHIKieffer Bellows: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 19:59PHIKevin Hayes: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stephenson won the faceoff against Frost
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestKessel – Blueger – Cotter11:14
xG 1.00–0.74 (57%)attempts 9–17goals 1–1
- Smith – Karlsson – Dorofeyev10:05
xG 0.36–0.16 (69%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Marchessault – Barbashev – Eichel11:27
xG 0.91–0.75 (55%)attempts 14–11goals 0–1
- Stephenson – Amadio – Howden12:53
xG 0.27–0.80 (25%)attempts 9–20goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMartinez – Pietrangelo16:59
xG 1.18–0.86 (58%)attempts 16–23goals 1–0
- Hague – Whitecloud14:35
xG 0.64–0.58 (53%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- McNabb – Theodore15:35
xG 0.55–1.04 (35%)attempts 12–19goals 0–2
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestLaughton – Cates – Foerster4:52
xG 0.38–0.00 (99%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Hayes – Tippett – Farabee6:12
xG 0.50–0.18 (73%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Lemieux – Frost2:13
xG 0.12–0.11 (53%)attempts 1–2goals 1–0
- Hayes – Lemieux – Foerster5:30
xG 0.34–0.45 (43%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeeler – DeAngelo12:48
xG 1.10–0.48 (70%)attempts 18–9goals 2–0
- Provorov – York15:12
xG 0.62–0.77 (44%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
- Ristolainen – Sanheim12:51
xG 0.13–1.03 (11%)attempts 9–13goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).