Tue, Mar 14, 2023·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Detroit Red Wings 1, Nashville Predators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 010 | 011 | 18 | 129 |
| NSH | 05 | 18 | 13 | 216 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 10:58NSHKiefer SherwoodAssists: Philip Tomasino, Colton Sissons · Snap, 0.22 xG0–1
- P3 2:22NSHTommy NovakGWGAssists: Cal Foote, Kiefer Sherwood · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–2
- P3 17:44DETAlex ChiassonPPAssists: Andrew Copp, Lucas Raymond · Deflected, 0.81 xG1–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:07NSHMatt Duchene: Tripping2 min
- P1 3:38DETMoritz Seider: Hooking2 min
- P1 9:15NSHKiefer Sherwood: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:20DETDylan Larkin: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:11DETDavid Perron: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 5:44NSHRoman Josi: Holding2 min
- P2 8:34DETRobert Hagg: Holding2 min
- P3 11:49DETJake Walman: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:20NSHDante Fabbro: Roughing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sissons won the faceoff against Copp
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestPerron – Larkin – Raymond3:00
xG 0.41–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Larkin – Suter – Raymond7:35
xG 0.58–0.17 (77%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Perron – Kubalik – Copp7:42
xG 0.40–0.09 (82%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Chiasson – Erne – Czarnik6:12
xG 0.23–0.12 (65%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHagg – Lindstrom12:04
xG 0.57–0.31 (65%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
- Chiarot – Maatta13:03
xG 0.34–0.09 (80%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
- Walman – Seider12:39
xG 0.75–0.53 (59%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- Duchene – Glass – Tomasino7:29
xG 0.11–0.15 (43%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Duchene – Novak – Tomasino2:18
xG 0.05–0.16 (24%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Jankowski – Asplund – Afanasyev6:39
xG 0.14–0.29 (33%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Novak – Sherwood – Evangelista4:23
xG 0.09–0.33 (22%)attempts 3–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Gravel – Foote8:37
xG 0.25–0.25 (49%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
- Josi – Foote3:16
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Josi – Fabbro9:56
xG 0.24–0.37 (39%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).